What are the ‘Formpro Ratings’?
They are numbers given to horses which represent how they performed. The higher the rating, the better the run. It is difficult to compare every horse’s ability in a race, but the ratings make it easy to compare horses across different classes, tracks, distances and track conditions. The very best horses when winning can rate around 120 down to an average midweek maiden winner on the West Coast of the South Island of around 90.
Dog ratings explained here on YouTube
What factors are taken into account when assessing the Formpro Ratings?
Many factors are used:
- Class
- Size of the field
- Race time
- Tempo of the race
- NZ Handicap Ratings
- Stake of the race
- Winning margin
- Weight carried
- The ability of other horses in the race
After all of the above is taken into account a Rating is formulated for the race. Then, depending on how much weight each horse carried in the race and how far it was behind the winner, an individual rating is given to every runner in that race. So it makes it very easy and quick to compare runners in the future in nearly all races where runners have had at least a few starts.
How to use the Formpro Ratings.
The Top Four Rated Runners Method
For a quick overview of the best rated runners, under each race there is a ‘Top Four Rated Runners’. These are the horses with the best ratings in any of their last four starts ranked in order. It can also be a good starting point for further analysis of the best horses.
The Adjusted Rating Method
You will notice at the end of the race page there is a ‘Pred’ column. It is automatically filled with the best of each runner’s last four starts.
But as we know, no horse can run at their peak all of the time. So you can deduct points for poor recent form or maybe even add points if it was unlucky. One point equals half a length. If it has drawn wide and you feel it will be disadvantaged then points can be deducted. Maybe it is fresh up and has shown that it needs one or two runs before reaching its peak so four or five points can be deducted for that. If a horse rated say 95 in a maiden win, and it was only at its third start, and you think it can win more races, you can also add on points. Horses can improve anywhere from 2 to 9 points when winning but on average around 5 points. Work your way through each horse and work out a ‘Predicted Rating’ for every horse by clicking in the box and adjusting it up or down, or you can just leave it. Once you have done that, you need to take into account how much weight the horse is carrying. Obviously, the lighter the weight, the more of an advantage it will have. You can quickly allow for that. At the bottom of the ‘Adj’ column you can click the ‘Submit’ button and your Predicted Rating will be adjusted according to how much weight it is carrying over the lowest carried weight. The runners with the highest adjusted rating are the main chances in the race.
The False Favourite Method: Use the TAB bookies favourite for the race, then work out that runners Predicted Rating. Let’s say it is Empire Rose and she is a $2.50 favourite with the bookies and after analyzing her ratings you predict that she will rate 115 for today’s race. After scanning through the field you find that Kiwi is quite capable of rating 114 and is likely to get a better run than Empire Rose. Kiwi Can is paying $5 with bookies so offers excellent value for money. No other runner looks as though it can rate close to those two so the race becomes a good betting proposition.
