We often get asked questions about what all the columns stand for with the Greyhound Predictor.  Plan A was to do a video but 12 months down the track lets just get something simple and usable posted.

The Ratings

The first thing to understand is the raw rating – each dog in a race is allocated a time-based rating 1-100 with 50 being the average time for the track and distance.  It’s harder to score above 66 and harder to score lower below 36.

In the past, the only value available was the winning time but with our ratings all dogs get a rating based on their actual time.

For those who may have studied a little bit of statistics, the ratings when allocated look like a “bell curve”.  That said, what is relevant is less how the rating is calculated but what one dog’s rating is compared to the rest of the field.

Predictor Rating

You will obviously note that there are many values provided by our ratings.  What the Predictor does is it takes account of the 4 key metrics and generates a metric based on:

  • top rating for last 2 starts
  • top rating for last 6 starts
  • top rating for distance type based on race length e sprint, middle or distance
  • and box speed

Our analysis of the past races suggests most weeks around 30-40% of races are won by the top rated.  Not only can it help find a winner, it can also help find a favourite that is paying unders as in the example below.

The starting point of course is that if a dog runs the average time for a track & distance, it will be allocated a rating of 50.  Better times get better ratings and logically slower times slower ratings.

 

Bell Curve: To bell or not to bell

Analysis

Here’s a race from today’s card at Cambridge.  And surprise surprise, it’s a race where the top ranked runner won!

The full list of the columns is below.

The obvious thing is that the ratings are displayed in the Predictor order.  The top rated for each key category is in red – so automatically we would be interested in Opawa Turn with all that red ink.

Based on our numbers, you can see that there was a clear value difference between the early favourite (opened at $2.30) and Opawa Turn (which opened closer to $4).  The one thing that Thrilling Rosie might have had in her favour was early speed but we can tell from the L6 Class that she’s just graduated from C0 classes so that early speed won’t count as much up in class.

I do like checking the L6 Class – you can sort by that column.  This is a fancier version of a downgrader.  As you can see below, the L6 Class shows the average class of the last 6 races.  As we’ve noted, Thrilling Rosie was up in class while Opawa Turn had been racing in C1 and C2.  The big downgrader was Angus Anchovy who ended up running second.

The other thing I like to do is to check the L6 Boxes (the average of the last 6 draws).  With the preferential draws, dogs tend to get draws that suit but this is a quick way to see if a dog with an inside or outside preference has been poorly drawn.

I’m generally a fan of dogs with early speed but with box 5 being vacant, it gave a little more room for a slower start but in the end that wasn’t needed.

Columns

No – box number (note dogs 9 and 10 simply inherit the boxes of scratched dogs so pays to check the map after the fields are confirmed)

Dog name – no explanation required!

Box – draw 1-8.  Not PBD races (Preferential Box Draw) where dogs are allocated boxes based on the running preference as opposed to a random draw which is still used for non-sprint races

L6 (Boxes) – the average box draw for the last 6 races

Box Stats – runs, wins, places for allocated box across ALL tracks and distances

Bias – a crude and simple metric to indicate whether a dog is likely to head left or right.

Box speed – based on our speed maps – green is good, red is slow

T&D – runs, wins and places for track and distance

Days – days since last race

CL – class of last start

CL (Class) – the average class of the last 6 races

UDRS – a metric used more in harness races where points are allocated for 1st, 2nd and 3rd and value calculated from that – in simpler terms, it’s how consistent a dog is over the track and distance

R1/2 – the dogs top rating across its last 2 starts

Spr/Mid/Dis – best rating for sprints, middle or distance races based on race distance.  In this case, it was a middle distance race hence Mid is the column heading

TD – best rating for track and distance – for obvious reasons, for many dogs this will be the same as their best rating by race distance

Best – best rating across last 6 races

Predictor – Predicted rating – higher the better.

Replay

As we can see, the early speed was no issue and once the blue rug got ahead after 100-150m, it was pretty much all over red rover.

Also worth noting that Thrilling Rosie wasn’t all that thrilled to have the inside draw.  Something worth checking at times – you can see from the replay that she felt more comfortable a position or two out from the rail.

 

 

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