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Recommended Bets – 8 Units

M3 R1 Broke Brad (4) 1 Double Up Promotion 1 unit win @ $6, 1 unit TOP3 at $1.85

M3 R6 Big Time Boots (1) 1 unit win @ $3.80

M9 R7 Big Denarau Delight (2) 2 unit win @ 2.90

M9 R10 Goldstar Lorenzo (1) .5 unit win @ $10

M9 R10 Homebush Archie (6) .5 unit win @ $10

M9 R12 Mustang Megan (1) 2 units @ 4

 

M3 R1 Broke Brad (4) Double Up Promotion

Broke Brad actually rates on top and while he does have a squeeze draw he’s won 3 from 10 in the blue rug and placed twice.  He’s run the fastest time here in the last two races while he has the best rating in the last 6 starts of all runners.  At $6 and $1.85 he’s nice each way money in a 6 dog race, especially with the double up promotion.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price $4 currently $6

M3 R6 Big Time Boots (1)

Not a dog you can back with a lot of confidence but I like this distance for him.  He’s struggled at PN over 457m and Hatrick 520m.  He hasn’t had drawn inside box 3 since 1 December when he won here also over 410m.  it’s not a strong field and he maps to be on the lead.  He should be ok in box 1 – he does wander a bit off the rail but so too does Allegro Pippa in box 2.  It’s not the toughest field he’s faced either – back in a straight C1 and he has the best time in the last 6 starts of all runners.  Looks a nice each way bet.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price $3 currently $3.80

M9 R5 Big Denarau Delight (2)

DD could smash them in this … it’s a pretty weak C1 and he ends up rated on top without a lot of competition.  He has a kind draw, no pace on his inside, and has the best opening sectional in the last 30 so he maps to land on the early speed.  The biggest danger would appear to be Bees and Buzzing (5) but he’s yet to trouble the scorers from box 5.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $2.6 currently $2.9

M9 R10 Goldstar Lorenzo/Homebush Archie

Today’s through at the stumps.  Crystal Candy could still win this but based on her numbers, I couldn’t back her at anywhere near 1.60 not to mention from box 4.  As I’ve mentioned before, at that price I’d like the option to lay the runner but the TAB don’t appear to be listening.  The two dogs that I like to cause a massive upset are Goldstar Lorenzo (1) and Homebush Archie (6).  You could write a long piece of analysis on why neither won’t win but the both appear strongly in the opening sectionals in this race.  It’s not a strong race but I think Crystal Candy is way too short and if there is an upset it will pay overs.  Archie is definitely hit or miss (and more miss than hit) but his one win was from box 5 and he jumped and they never saw him again until the got to the handlers.

Confidence 1/5

M9 R12 Mustang Megan (1)

Next Off (6) has been costly in recent starts and I think it could be so today as well.  Mustang Megan is a natural railer as she does get off the inside but she does have early speed.  She came second from box 2 to a very good dog in Pitch Mark and Megan ran 17.23 – any time around that mark would go close to winning this.  She has two of the top 4 best opening sectionals in the last 90 days so has to be a chance to win and her best time is better than Next Off’s.  Homebush Liam is not without his chances either.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $3 currently $4