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Recommended Bets – 10 Units
M3 R6 Angry Jane (7) 1 unit @ 3.20
M3 R8 Rebel Boom (3) 3 units @ 1.75
M3 R10 Homebush Dream (3) 2 units @ 2.90
M9 R9 Big Time Angel (7) 2 units @ 2.80
Multi 1 unit Homebush Dream + Big Time Angel to return 8.1 units
Multi 1 unit Rebel Boom + Homebush Dream to return 5 units
M3 R6 Angry Jane (7)
I think Angry Jane is worth a small play as I’m not convinced the likely favourite Dublin Express (2) has a map to suit. He likes to get off the rail and he can go AWOL if he runs into trouble. The sectionals suggest there will be pressure on his outside and he would need to be at his very best to get out and clear. That potentially sets it up for a wider runner and Angry Jane rates alongside Dublin Express. Her box stats from 7 are awful but she has run well from boxes 6 and 8. Surprisingly, she has the two best opening sectionals in the last 90 days (including one from box 6) but like the favourite, she can be “enigmatic”. I thought we might have got a little more value but perhaps the bookies have been reading the same tea leaves.
Rated price 2.9 currently 3.20
M3 R8 Rebel Boom (3)
As a rule, I’m not keen on backing C0 graduates first time in C1. However, for every rule there has to be an exception so we’ll play that card. Rebel Boom has had two starts – last win was in box 4 and you would think he still has some upside. Out of all the runners in this field, the only dog to ever run faster than Rebel Boom at Addington is Pooran’s Jadeja (8) and that was from box 2. PJ is likely to be a little sleepy first up after 48 days and he really doesn’t seem to like the outside draw. Rebel Boom has the best opening sectional in the last 30 days, the two best times and an improved draw. If he can get away cleanly – and there’s no reason he can’t – he should be winning. Fair value at $1.75 but as we’ve seen shortpriced dogs aren’t immune to losing so you wouldn’t want the price to shorten a lot from here.
Rated price 1.8 currently 1.75
M3 R10 Homebush Dream (3)
I really like Homebush Dream (3) in race 10. He won for us a few starts back but has struggled since he went up to C2 and I’ve been waiting for him to downgrade – he actually ran second in a C2 race last start after he’d downgraded. The big advantage he has is box speed – he has the five best opening sectionals in the last 30 days along with a couple of slow trappers on his inside. To be fair, the two favoured runners won’t appear in those stats. Tiggerlong Pat has only run once in the last 30 days but is hit and miss. Homebush Dream should be able to hold the rail – the question is whether he can get a decent break. The scratching of Spring Timmie takes out one of the likely favourites and main dangers too.
Rated price 2 currently 2.90
M9 R9 Big Time Angel (7)
The magic recipe at Addington in the sprints is box speed from box 1 but with Angel it’s anything but the inside draw. With boxes 5 and 6 vacant, Angel effectively comes into box 6 where she’s won 3 from 5 but more to the point 3 from 3 in the green rug at Palmerston North. Angel is of course the distance record holder here and there’s a few dogs here that look like they will struggle to compete. If Angel can run anywhere near her top level, she should be winning. With Fuzz scratched, Fairy should be on the early speed and they look the obvious quinella.
Rated price 2.4 currently 2.80