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Recommended Bets – 10 units

M3 R6 Amuri Josie (2)  1 unit win @ $13, 1 unit TOP3 @ $3.1

M3 R7 Goldstar Willa (2) 2 units win @ $1.90

M9 R12 Gracie Lee (6) 1 unit win @ $8, 1 unit TOP3 @ $2.05

M3 R2 Zipping Russell (6) 2 units win @ 1.75

M9 R7 Big Time Harry (6) 1 unit win @ $9, 1 unit TOP3 @ $2.05

Best multi – Goldstar Willa + Big Time Falcon to return $25.65 for $10

 

M3 R6 Amuri Josie (2)

We haven’t had a throw at the stumps for a while but I think Josie could be a little overs.  Again, the map should be beneficial as Spice Spice Baby likes to run wide – as does Overtaking in box 1.  I’m not convinced Overtaking can get off the lids quick enough but the key for Josie will be to clear the dog in the red rug.  If she can, then the rail should be hers.  The dogs with early speed are drawn wider and don’t necessarily appreciate the draws coupled with the likelihood as they attempt to cross to the rail a couple of dogs could be moving out wider.  Josie has run the best closing sectional in the last 30 days and her overall times are competitive with the best here.  Yes it does sound like a John Grisham novel but if the map plays out, I think there’s a chance at some overs with Amuri Josie.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 5 currently 13

M3 R7 Goldstar Willa (2)

The map is the key to this race in my opinion.  Opawa Pink (3) is a genuine chance but simply prefers to be wider.  This should provide Goldstar Willa with a clear path along the inside as Dorothy Be very bad from the lids in recent racing.  Willa has the two best closing sectionals in the last 30 days and two of the five fastest over all times.  Based on those times, if the map plays out as expected, Willa will get her chance.  She’s been back in C1 for 4 starts but has drawn no closer than box 4 so the improved draw should also help.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price 1.85 currently 1.9

M3 R12 Gracie Lee (2)

It’s impossible to go a day without someone on Trackside usttering those golden words – box speed is gold.  Gracie Lee has a lot of toe and gets out of the boxes well and almost hung on at good money last start.  Just ask me for more details.  The issue is that she really struggles to see the race out.  That said, she maps to lead and the other dogs with early pace are drawn wider.  She needs to get a break and in her case, trouble behind would help.  It will be a tough watch but I just think she has the sectionals to put a break on them and give us a run.  Curve Crusher (7) is 2 from 2 but both starts in C0 he’s been a little slow the first couple of strides and today is a step up.  Gracie looks a good each way bet.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 4.5 currently 8

M3 R2 Zipping Russell (6)

He looks a class above him although there is a slight flag about the outside draw.  Still an inexperienced dog, he drew 8 at Hatrick in September was slow away and wasn’t a happy camper.  The long back straight at Palmerston North should help as well.

Confidence 3/5

Rated price 1.80 currently 1.75

M9 R6 Big Time Falcon (2)

Falcon has won his last two races – the start prior, he ran an outstanding second to Big Time Kaylee so that form has well and truly been franked.  He’s still a young dog but rails nicely enough and unless he has problems at the start, he looks well and truly like a dog on the way up.  At 1.35FF – and I suspect he will come in further – he looks a decent anchor for a few multis.

Suggest multis

M9 R7 Big Time Harry (6)

I think Harry is worth a little investment assuming he’s back in full racing model (check any weight variance if you can).  Prior to his break, he was running times that would win most races against this lineup.  It’s a tough race to line with Harry back after 48 days and Spring Fox after 118 days.  Then you have a dog like Big Time Chanell having her first start at Palmerston North.  Harry’s won 2 from 7 here, has a pretty good record from box 6.  Another each way play.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price 4.5 currently 9 – check for any weight adjustments (first start in 48 days)