Selections 15 December 2020

A day when it might be better to mow the lawns or do your Xmas shopping.

While there’s 15 races, there’s a decent chunk of C0 races which I won’t generally bet into as well large number of scratchings no doubt due to kennel cough.  So no strategy today and just a couple of bets on offer.  Save our money for later in the week.

David

Best Bet – M3 R2 Van Ivan (3)

Van Ivan really should be winning this.  He’s running C5 times in a C1 race with just 5 challengers – he rates on top by nearly 40 points.  There are a couple of downgraders but he’s drawn the best marble of his short career so far.  He’s not blistering fast early but he should be in touch with the likely leaders which should include Diamond Empress (1) and Smash Grenade (7).  The empty box on his inside should help as well.  No value at $1.30 but he looks a decent multi builder.

Confidence 4/5

Rated price $1.25 currently $1.30

Next Best – M3 R6 Gorilla’s Smile (1)

Best on ratings and times, Gorilla’s Smile should be winning this but I am breaking my golden rule of punting into a C0 race.  Around the $2 in a 5 dog race is value but I wouldn’t want to go too much shorter.

Confidence 2/5

Rated price $1.90 currently $1.95

Best Each Way – M3 R3 Know Keratic (2)

The money will definitely come for Goldstar Sharon (1) but on paper there’s not a huge difference between the two with Know Keratic having run a better time.  The big chance for Know Keratic is the improved draw.  It looks like you could get more for a place on Know Keratic than the win for Goldstar Sharon so the value play is EW.

Confidence 1/5

Rated price $3.40 currently $7