Selections for Tuesday, 18 August racing at Palmerston North (M3) and Addington (M9)
It’s been a bit of a struggle today to find runners we can back with confidence and especially difficult to find some value. Not a day for lashing out I suspect.
I’ll update this page during the day.
Addington M9 R10 Taieri Taylee (5)
Has been racing consistently. Last start, was beaten off the lids by some quick dogs but this week there doesn’t look to be the same early pace. There doesn’t seem to be any speed around him so with a reasonable jump he should be winning this.
RP $1.90 currently $2.00 FF
Bombed the start and that was the race.
Addington M9 R11 Trouseau (4)
Outstanding C0 win but found C1 a little tougher. The obvious downside is that she’s still inexperienced but this is not a tough field. The main dangers are Goldstar Spotty (2) and Know Tactics (7) but Trouseau’s maiden win was significantly better than what they’ve been running recently.
RP $2.00 currently $2.00 FF
Each Way Value
Palmerston North M3 R5 Big Time Benji (4)
It’s normally hard to back Benji with any great confidence but there’s a few things in his favour today. A spare box on his outside helps. For a C1/2 race, there’s not a lot of form at all. Also, Benji made a fleeting appearance on the top closing sectionals – not a standout on the day but enough to suggest that in a race without any form and little box speed, he’s got to be a decent each way bet. In an open race, Roonie could help spice up exotics.
RP $3.50 currently $4.00 FF
Nice second but gave the favourite too much of a start. Winsurance might have been the way to go.
Palmerston North M3 R7 Big Time Cooper (8)
Back to his home track. He likes the outside box and maps to lead. Has won 12 from 15 track and distance and is top rated in all categories.
Currently $1.50 FF
Jumped OK but he seemed to go down on his nose and miss a stride or two. Conversely, Bailey jumped like a startled rabbit and it was no surprise to see Cooper run down the way they were placed at the top of the straight. Top time so no reputations dented.
Bonus Back Palmerston North Race 1
A nightmare race to start the day. I just love those C0 races! The only two with exposed form are Big Time Penny and Wit and Wisdom. Not sure i liked Wit and Wisdom out wide either. Penny is a little suspect from the jump but she does map to lead this. Back in July Penny did run second over the course and distance with Big Time Fuzz and Big Time Beat down the track.
RP $3.60 currently $3.80 FF
In retrospect, Takakawe had winning form. Penny made a reasonable start and then got more checks than a Highland tartan. Wit and Wisdom not much better but did place.
Bonus Back Palmerston North Race 2
It’s a bit of a lottery with a couple of the runners having their first start over the distance while most of these have run their best rated recent races at Hatrick. I’m happy to have a small play at a roughie in this – Bigtime Kate. She has a great record from box 1 (6 from 12), has been drawn out in recent starts, has the best time over the distance, and has been running the best times out of this lot over the distance. Born Fab in box 2 won’t want the rails either. At double figure odds, worth a gold coin especially with the money back offer.
RP $5.00 currently $12.00 FF
Great result. Worth having a play with the filter and focusing on just Palmerston North results where Kate stood out. Nice start to the day after Penny missed.
Recommended Strategy – 10 Units
Bets in race order sequence. The first two bets are lower confidence but have the safety net of the bonus back offer.
M3 R1 Big Time Penny 1 unit at $3.80 (bonus back) missed
M3 R2 Bigtime Kate 1 unit at $12FF (bonus back) Yes 12 units returned
M3 R5 Big Time Benji 2 units @ $4 Second
M9 R10 Taieri Taylee 3 units @ $2 Missed
M9 R11 Trouseau 3 units @ $2 Never in doubt once it got in front. 6 units returned.
It’s been a funny day just not the laughing kind. Three of our top bets from last week all won at Palmy today but for various reasons, I was happy to let them run. We had a great start to the day with Kate winning at great money but not a lot after that.
Still 18 units returned on a niggly type of day so another good result bar the disappointing effort from the Bet of the Day.
Back again next week.