Selections for Tuesday, 11 August racing at Palmerston North (M3) and Addington (M9)

Updated Tuesday am with recommended bets

Update Monday evening – early reviewing looking at the first two races at Palmerston North with the TAB’s Double Up promotion.

Best Bet

Palmerston North M3 R9 Big Time Buzz (1)

Back to the well for Buzz – last week he was beaten by a dog who ran a personal best and the draw.  This week, from the inside draw, he just needs a clear getaway and should be way too good. Not a lot of value in $1.70FF but will make a nice multi as well.

RP $1.70 currently $1.70FF

Yes.  Fuzz had been a tad unlucky at Palmerston North recently but the draw took bad luck out of it so a good jump was enough to set up a comfortable victory and another good day for the selections.

Next Best

Palmerston North M3 R5 Big Time Angel (7)

I suspect the bookies are pricing in her box manners as she has missed away in the past.  To be fair, that has been especially so with inside draws and her last couple of runs from wider boxes she has blasted out of the boxes.  And as we see week after week, any dog can miss the start.  I think anything over $2 is great money for the current track record holder.  But yes, she has to jump first.

RP $2.00 currently $2.30FF

Wins.  Pretty easy win to be fair – once she jumped and cleared the 4 dog, it was pretty much all over.  Great money given her record.

Red Rug Ready

Addington M9 R1 Regal Jock (1)

Box 1 at Addington has an unbelievable record and Jock looks like he will appreciate the inside draw with 2 wins from 3 attempts from box 1.  His one miss was actually over middle distance.  It is a race with little box speed so he should be OK.  The lack of box speed might help Lakota Tonka and those two look the likely quinella.  Money is already coming for Jock.

RP $1.90 currently $1.95FF $1.85FF

Yes.  The dogs that can read the preview certainly make life a lot easier.  Held the rail nicely and the only question was whether Tonka could get up for second – another great result.

Sectional Special

Palmerston North M3 R3 Bigtime Levi (5)

Levi just doesn’t seem to realise he’s a veteran.  Last week, he ran the best closing sectional over the 457m and if anything he prefers the middle boxes.  He was a length and a half ahead of Funky Facts at the end of the back straight and Funky Facts is the favourite.  It’s not the toughest of fields for a C3/4 race and Levi can still be competitive at C5 so I like the money on offer given his sectional last week.

RP $2.80 currently $4.80FF

Missed.  Got away well but took too long to find the after burners.  First four home were the first four top rated.

Double Up Palmerston North Race 1

A tough way to start the day!  Gazza’s Girl rates on top and will likely be well supported but has yet to win over the T&D after 37 previous attempts (37 is NOT a typo).  She ran a top closing sectional for the grade last week but she will also certainly get back and need to go around them.  Conversely, if Big Time Diesel gets in then he has the early gas (yes, intended) to get out in front and then they’ll have to run him down.  His closing sectionals are weak though.  What makes the race hard to analyze is that two Cole runners are having their first start over the 457m – Big Time Harry has been missing the start but picked it last week while has typically been seen closing off his races over shorter distances.  A really tough way to start the day.

Take your pick.  I’m happy to put Gazza’s Girl on top but it’s one of those races.

Ouch.  As I noted a very even race but it wasn’t hard to notice Gazza’s Girl about to swoop around the top corner when she literally ran into the dog on her inside.  With racing there’s only one way to win but plenty to lose! No damage done to the strategy though.

Double Up Palmerston North Race 2

It doesn’t get a lot easier in race two.  Allegro Nixon (4) has been the centre of some great form lines recently and has run the best time here over the last 30 days.  Big Time Roxy (8) has been racing better classes that this and prior to going up to C3 had won five races in a row including 2 here over the 457m in competitive times.  Last week had an extremely chequered run but still made ground for fourth.  You have to think the outside box will help also.  Ohana Lad (6) isn’t the worst but yet to win over the distance in 5 races.

Without any great confidence, this should be a lot easier task for Big Time Roxy who has been drawn to suit.  That said, Nixon would not surprise if he won.

Won by the length of the straight.  Book says a nose but it was nice to get one of those up especially as I usually prefer to back front runners.  Nice exotics too.  Good start for the strategy too.

Recommended Strategy – 10 Units

Bets in race order sequence

M3 R2 Big Time Roxy 1 unit @ $3.80 (Double Up) Yes 3.80 units + 2.8 bonus units

M3 R3 Bigtime Levi 1 unit @ $4.80 3rd

M3 R5 Big Time Angel 3 units @ $2.30 Yes.  6.9 units returned.

M3 R9 Big Time Fuzz 3 units @ $1.70 Yes. 5.1 units returned

M9 R1 Regal Jock 2 units @ $1.95 Yes. 3.9 units returned.

Another great day for the strategy – 19.7 units returned on a 10 unit investment with another 2.8 units of bonus bets.