Selections for Tuesday, 4 August racing at Palmerston North (M3) and Addington (M9)

Another top day where the bookies have plenty of chances to get our money soit’s important to focus on the races where we think we have a chance at winning and also getting some value.

Best Bet

Palmerston North M3 R11 Big Time Buzz (7)

I mentioned last week the strong form lines around Allegro Nixon and the runs last week of Buzz, Nixon and Big Time Dawson (until tapped from behind) backed that up.  The only concern I have is the draw but Buzz looks well placed here and should have enough early speed to clear out in a seven dog race. Money is coming too.  A reminder this is a double up bonus race ie you get double your winnings if you win.

RP $2.20 currently $3.10FF $2.60FF

The money kept coming but Hazel nutted us – got to the lead and held on strongly which was the surprise.

Next Best

Palmerston North M3 R10 Big Time Angel (6)

The track record holder and only needs to jump to win this.  Hasn’t raced over the 410m at Palmerston North for a few starts but has a great record here and seems to pick the jump better here, especially from the outside boxes.  Inside has a bit of toe and the outside dog should be slow away which should also help in a seven dog race.

RP $2.00 currently $2.80FF

Yes.  Funny game – the draw most likely cost Buzz but Angel definitely appreciated the wider draw and space and it was over a long way from home.

Speed Map Special

Addington M9 R7 Crystal Candy (2)

Has won three from fours starts here and looks to be able to get an uncontested lead and should be able to clear out from there.  Not a lot of value but a potential multi maker as well.  Dog in box 1 should be slow away which should help.

RP $1.80 currently $1.80FF

Yes – jumped run and won.

Red Rug Booster

Addington M9 R7 Mitcham Usain (1)

The key to this race is that it is a restricted age event so it is a massive easing of class for Mitcham Usain and the favourite and brother Mitcham Magic (6).  Magic is the only C5 runner in this although Usain downgrades for this race after three C5 races where he drew 6 or wider.  The ratings say they are competitive and Usain gets a much improved draw today and that could be the difference.  There’s a sniff of some value here although it does look like a race in two so cover both in quaddies etc.

RP $2.50FF currently  $3.30FF

It’s nice when things work out the way we want.  Once Usain got the rail and Magic was pushed wider, the $3.30 was looking great value.  A nice example of how the ratings highlighted that the market pricing wasn’t a fair reflection of each runners chances.

Double Up Palmerston North Race 1

Palmerston North M3 R1 Big Time Payton (4)

I’m not a great fan of betting into C0 races simply because it’s hard to line up form.  In this case, Payton comes from a win at Hatrick last start but first time at Palmerston North.  Harry continues to miss the start and in any dog race that makes it tough. The other main chance is Wit and Wisdom but he’s had plenty of chances and yet to win.  Not a high confidence race but Payton looks like he can get on the early pace and he seemed to run through the line ok.  Not a strategy bet but the double up bonus potentially adds some value.

Currently $2.70FF

Payton got away ok but Harry managed to pick the jump this time and it looked all over red rover a long way out.  The three favourites made up the trifecta.

Recommended Strategy 10 Units

Selections in race start time order:

M3 R2 Big Time Buzz 3 units @ $3.10 (opening price) Second

M3 R10 Big Time Angel 2 units @ $2.80 Yes 5.60 units returned.

M9 R7 Crystal Candy 2 units @ $1.80 Yes 3.60 units returned.

M9 R9 Mitcham Usain 1.5 units @ $3.30 Yes 4.95 units returned.

M9 R9 Mitcham Usain/Mitcham  Magic 1.5 units AB/AB/FLD trifecta (or quinella for simplicity) Q  $1.80 Tri $22.  1.5 x $1.80 = 2.7 units returned.  Interestingly, the trifecta returned 2.75 units – a bit of a hail Mary with the value coming if a roughie gets up for third.

16.85 units returned for a profit of 6.85 units on a 10 unit investment

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