Selections for Tuesday, 28 July racing at Palmerston North (M3) and Addington (M9)

Another top day of racing with 24 races giving punters – and bookies – plenty of chances.  Which means of course there are some nice races to watch!

A reminder that there is a later start today with the first race at 1.30.  The first two races are the money back races too.

Best Bet

Addington M9 R5 Making News (4)

Making News has been running consistent races rating well but there’s some depth in the middle distance in Canterbury.  Last start, she rated a career best 70 which is the best time run over the distance in the last 6 starts across the entire field.  What I particularly like is that the speed map suggests she can get an uncontested lead.

RP $2.20 currently $3.00FF

Second – got the lead but the main danger got a clear run and was too strong at the end.  Making News had its chance but it’s now fish and chips wrapper.

Next Best

Palmerston North M3 R11 Big Time Dawson (8)

Not a lot of value but he rates very strongly based on a top effort at Cambridge last start, albeit over a slightly shorter distance.  His closing sectional here last week was the 5th fastest on the day which is a great performance for a C1 dog.  He’s the only runner to have won over the T&D as well.  Has placed twice from box 7 so box 8 shouldn’t trouble, especially as there’s no speed whatsoever on his inside.

RP $1.80 currently $1.75FF

Frustrating.  The form around Dawson was outstanding with Allegro Nixon and Big Time Fuzz both winning.  Seemed to be make a move around to lead when tapped from behind and that was all she wrote.

Follow the Formline

Palmerston North M3 R12 Big Time Fuzz (3)

Last week I mentioned that Fuzz was a good chance in the C0 race and duly won, franking the form of Allegro Nixon who had beaten Fuzz by just over a length previously.  That form line stacks up and it’s worth noting that Allegro Nixon is going around earlier today paying $1.90.  The main danger Hazel has yet to win at Palmerston North and has drawn outside Fuzz.  That could be critical as Hazel’s sectionals look better at the start of the race and if Fuzz can hold the rail and keep in touch, he should be too strong for Hazel in the closing stages.

RP $2.90 currently $3.90FF

After the earlier races, Fuzz became a moral with the way the form lines lined up.  Great opening price too.

Value Bet

Palmerston North M3 R8 Big Time Benji (8)

Not a great confidence bet but Benji rates on top in every category bar box speed.  It’s a pretty weak field and there isn’t any early speed either so if Benji had unleash the same closing sectionals from the last couple of runs, he can swoop around the lot.  The rest of the field combined have won the same number of times over the same T&D but he’s racing like he’s still got a win or two in him.  I prefer not to punt swoopers but he does look the best dog in this race.

RP $3.50 currently $4.60FF

The ratings had five clear chances and they made up the first five home but not quite the order we had wanted.  Benji had his chance but didn’t kick the way we had hoped.

Bonus Back Palmerston North Race 2

Palmerston North M3 R2

A competitive race.  I think there’s three main chances – Brody (1), Anton (2) and Rapid Fire (6).  Brody maps to lead which ironically could help Anton in box 2.  Anton had the best closing sectional over 457m last week so is a definite chance.  The interesting runner in terms of value is Rapid Fire.  He has been bombing the starts but still running impressive times.  Last week, he made a better start and ran the third best opening sectional of the day behind Big Time Lantao.  He’s also unbeaten in NZ from box 6.  While the two dogs drawn on the inside should fight out the finish, if there is an upsetter then Rapid Fire could be the one at odds.  While my third selection, the money back offer is attractive for Rapid Fire.

Brody missed the jump and once Anton got ahead of him it was all over.  Nice run from Rapid Fire so money back never in doubt.

Multi Maker

Palmerston North M3 R1 Big Time Cooper (4)

Cooper is the obvious standout in this race and at $1.60 represents pretty good value given his box speed and record.  Can be a little suspect over the last 50m but the money back offer provides insurance. Note – when I starting writing up my analysis, Cooper was at $1.60 which I felt was pretty fair.  He’s now $1.35 which is getting pretty short.  He still looks the best chance in the race but the value has largely disappeared.

RP 1.50 currently $1.60FF $1.35FF

Never looked like losing – the bookies start with a blood nose with the $1.60 disappearing quicker that the NRL bunker can get it wrong!

Recommended Strategy 10 Units

Selections in race start time order:

1 unit M3 R2 Rapid Fire (Bonus bet race) @ $13 gave us a run but money back at good odds – 1 unit returned (bonus bet)

1 unit M3 R5 Big Time Benji @ $4.60 missed

3 units M3 R11 Big Time Dawson @ $1.75 missed but seemed to be on his way to glory before disaster

2 units M3 R12 Big Time Fuzz @ $3.90 Yes great price – 7.80 units returned

3 units M9 R5 Making News @ $3.00 missed – second but had his chance

Just the one win and on a frustrating day we still got close to money back – 7.80 units returned plus a bonus bet.  Cooper one without racing a sweat which was a positive start. 

Back again next week.