Selections for Tuesday, 21 July racing at Palmerston North (M3) and Addington (M9)
We’re being treated to some great racing on today. Some nice betting opportunities and more than a few races where we can watch them go around. There’s even two distance races at Palmerston North today.
I’ve made a point in the past that it’s often worth following the losers in the best selections. One case was Curly Bill who failed to do the job for us the last couple of weeks but went up in distance and lead all the way paying over $20 on the tote!
Palmerston North M3 R1 Big Time Brie (2)
I’m going early with my best bet as we can double up with the Bonus Back offer. To be fair, she’d be bet of the day without. She maps to be on the pace if not the early leader and has a great record from box 2. Last couple of weeks she’s been racing at Hatrick but here last start here she won with the second best opening sectional and the 4th best close. Main danger is kennelmate Jackson – he has run well over the 457m at Palmerston North but did when over distance and the same box at Cambridge last start.
RP $2.10 currently $3.00FF
Small margins – almost got out in front but we were looking in trouble a long way from home. The money came – big time too. Opened at 3 and was odds on by the jump. But it doesn’t matter what they pay if they don’t win.
Addington M3 R11 Archie John Hill (5)
There’s a couple of things that should work in his favour. First, this is a restricted age race where Archie’s normally up against the creme of the creme and generally very competitive. We won a RA sprint a couple back in a great time. Second, when he misses out, it’s his starts that let him down – at least relative to the speedsters in open class. In this race, he maps to get away well which is the key – if he can jump on turns and avoid early trouble, as the map suggests, he should be far to strong for them again.
RP $2.00 currently $2.50FF
Yes – the easing of the class made all the difference. Still not brilliant off the lids but he was fast enough to beat these tonight and that’s all he needed to do.
Value Bet 1
Palmerston North M3 R12 Allegro Nixon (8)
While there’s always a bit of caution with dogs moving from Co to C1 racing, I’m happy to have a little nibble at Allegro Nixon. It’s a tricky race (and yes, there is a political pun in there!) but based on his times over 410m last start, he is clearly top rated. His closing sectional – in a C0 race – was the 8th best of ALL runners last week. He’s jumped well in his two races so far and there’s no a lot of early pace inside him. He’s a big dog and the wide spaces from the outside draw should suit. If Fuzz wins in the C0 earlier in the day, then pop an extra coin on.
RP $2.90 currently $3.90FF
Yes. Not the easiest watch but there was always some confidence with the time he had run that he could get over the top and he did. It’s a pity that Fuzz raced earlier as Nixon winning franked the form of Fuzz earlier in the day.
Value Bet 2
Palmerston North M3 R8 Big Time Kevin (5)
Kevin was outstanding last week chasing home Big Time Angel who is the track record holder over the 410m. He had a superior draw but ran a great opening sectional – the fourth best of the day. His closing sectional was even better – the best of the day. The speed map suggests he will be slow out but it’s more a case of hit and miss. With box 4 being vacant, he might just have enough room to squeeze through and if he can get on terms by the end of the back straight, they shouldn’t be able to run him down. The jump will be critical. However, based on his sectionals last week, he’s worth a nibble at that price in a 7 dog race.
RP $3.00 currently $5.00FF
Jump was critical and he missed it and he just got too far back.
Bonus Back Palmerston North Race 2
Palmerston North M3 R2 Big Time Lantao (5)
It’s another competitive race and my best selection last night was scratched so it’s thrown the race wide open. That said, Lantao has consistently been running opening sectionals that would be competitive in higher grades and I can see her leading at the end of the back straight here. She is up in class but her times show she can still get on the pace. The dog on her inside may be Rapid Fire but rapid he is not, at least out of the boxes. The bookies have Funky Facts as favourite and he’s a slow trapper and swooper so box 8 suits where he has a great record. However, for money back purposes, if Lantao can get the early jump then she’s a good chance to return your investment at least.
RP $3.90 currently $5.00FF
Tough game this punting. Our best of the day just didn’t read the script yet Lantao clearly did. Nice value too which gets us back on track.
Recommended Strategy 10 Units
Selections in race start time order:
3 units M3 R1 Big Time Brie@ $3.00 – Bonus Back No. Not even bonus back!
1 unit M3 R2 Big Time Lantao @ $5.00 – Yes Those sectionals make the difference. 5 Units returned
2 units M3 R8 Big Time Kevin @ $5.00 – No – missed the jump. Third
2 units M3 R12 Allegro Nixon @ $3.90 – Yes – came in a fair bit but nice result. 7.80 units returned so another profitable day with a race to come.
2 units M9 R11 Archie John Hill @ $2.50 Yes – 5 units returned
17.8 units returned so another excellent day using the ratings and sectionals