Selections for Tuesday, 16 June racing at Palmerstom North (M3) and Addington (M9)

Another great couple of cards of racing.  On the surface, the bookies seem to have us covered with not a lot of value where there looks an obvious selection.  At PN, there’s a strong contingent of Karen Walsh’s dogs which will make for some great racing.

Updates throughout the day.

Best Bet

Addington M9 R6 Seductive Kiwi (2)

More hit and miss than even the Warriors but when he’s good he’s really really good.  If he misses the jump, he seems to start thinking about the next race so there is a risk but I like the draw and the speed map.  There’s no pace on his inside whatsoever while the likely early leader tends to move a width or two off the rail.  There’s not a lot of early speed either and Seductive Kiwi maps to be second on the rail with a lap to go and if that scenario plays out, his ratings tell us he should win.  Is 1-1 from box 2.

RP $1.80 currently $1.90FF

Started ok but others started better and just never showed up. Another disappointing run.

Speed Map Special

Palmerston North M3 R3 Thrilling Baxter (4)

Baxter looks the likely leader in race 3 and if he can jump and get a break on the field, it’s hard to see them catching him.  He’s come back from the lockdown in great shape and his winning run first back is significantly better than any other runner.  Tank looks the main danger – he’s starting to get down the grades again but his last runs haven’t been all that promising.  Tank is also slow out of the boxes and that could be the difference.

RP $2.00 currently $2.20FF

Will have to have a word to the speed map team – not how we expected the start of the race.  But his burn was fantastic and the analysis showed the value of comparing recent starts (“Best”).  Clearly the best dog in the race and won like that.

Value Bet

Addington M10 R1 Sneaky Snitch (1)

A dog with early speed draw 1 is hard to beat at Addington.  Sneaky Snitch doesn’t have blistering early speed but you think that from the draw, he should be able to hold the rails.  His best time was from this box and same class two starts back.  The ratings say if he repeats that performance he wins.

RP $2.80 currently $3.30FF

Needed a longer nose. 

Multi Makers

Addington M9 R1 Van Nindi (4)

Another dog with the consistency of our league friends.  At her best, would street them.  May be still a little experienced and doesn’t like being crowded so the speed maps is reassuring as it shows she should be leading or second on the outside with plenty of clear air.  $1.60 is pretty short but if the speed map plays out it could be good money.

Currently $1.60FF

Well the speed map did work out to an extent with the leader being the white rug and once VN missed the jump it was all over for the favourite.  Very disappointing.

Money Back Races – Palmerston North Races 1 + 2

Race 1 is a C0 lottery – for that reason any dog with early box speed has an advantage if there is a trouble behind.  Big Time Beat isn’t blistering but any other speed looks to be outside her box (5).  Rates on top as well.

Race 2 is interesting as 3 runners have not raced T&D and another has had just 2 starts T&D so hard to line them up.  At her best, Neve will run away and hide but has been on and off.  Big Time Rocket has winning form over 520m at Hatrick while Big Time Jewel stood out in last week’s opening sectionals so could be the early leader.

Recommended Strategy 10 Units

3 units Seductive Kiwi @ $1.90 third

2 units  multi Van Nindi + Seductive Kiwi @ $3.04 No

2 units Thrilling Baxter @ $2.20 yes 4.40 units returned

2 units Sneaky Snitch @ $3.30 2nd

1 unit Big Time Beat @ $3.00 (Bonus Money Back) 2nd – 1 unit returned (bonus back)