Selections for Tuesday, 16 June racing at Palmerstom North (M3) and Addington (M9)
I’m looking forward to today’s races, a couple of matchups in particular. There’s a couple of up and comers in race 9 at PN and I will fascinated as to who takes the honours.
We managed a small profit last week after two excellent weeks. Let’s see if we can keep the roll going!
Palmerston North M3 R6 Emgrand Rose (6)
It looks like a match race between the Rose and Kamada Park – same as last week with Emgrand Rose winning. The Rose has drawn inside KP who’s much better with inside draws plus Rose has a vacant box immediately on the inside. They look the obvious quinella too.
RP $1.80 currently $1.95FF
That’s how you want your best bet to win – a track record to boot. Once KP missed the start and Emgrand Rose picked it, it was over a long way from home.
Palmerston North M3 R1 Big Time Queen (4)
Based on her first start win at Hatrick, she looks like a decent early bank builder albeit at short odds. It would take extreme bad luck for her not to run fourth or better so the money back offer looks pretty good. She floated out a width or two from box one first start so box 4 shouldn’t be an issue.
RP $1.60 currently $1.50FF (Bonus Money Back)
Whether that was luck or just an extremely bad run, it was extremely bad nonetheless. I used to have a mantra to not bet on C0 races if I could avoid it and I should remember that in the future.
Beat The Favourite
Palmerston North M3 R12 Mothers Touch (3)
Not the easiest watch as she goes so wide around the home turn she loops through Foxton. Yasawa Lights has been short priced pretty much every race in NZ and again finds itself the favourite. Based on her ratings to date, you’d have to say there’s not a lot of value about her – both Mother’s Touch and Allegro Pippa rate better. Again, if we are going to be made to bet on only the NZ TAB, they must provide the opportunity to back against the favourite.
RP $3.00 currently $3.90FF
Yes and when will the TAB provide us with the opportunity to beat against the favourite??
Speed Map Special
Addington M9 R1 Mulberry Brit (1)
In a race without a lot of speed, she should be able to hold the rail with the dog in box 2 being slow out. She’s had a run of bad box draws and the last time she was in box 1 four starts back, she won rating 62 which only Jinja Cream Fizz has beaten.
RP $2.80 currently $3.70FF
Loved the inside draw – second out but wanted to poke the nose through and had it won a long way from home.
PN M9 R11 Big Time Lantao (1)
Not sure the box really suits, but the dog in box 2 hangs a little right so should provide a block if Lantao misses the jump. Based on last week’s sectionals, only bad luck beats. Wifi Wilbur’s sectioanals last week were pretty tidy as well so they could make up the quinela.
Recommended Strategy 10 Units
2 units Emgrand Rose @ $1.95 – yes 3.90 units returned
1 unit Q or Tri Emgrand Rose+ Kamada Park Not today – KP blew the start
3 units Big Time Queen @ $1.50 (Money Back) A big no
2 units Mulberry Brit @ 3.70 – Yes pretty much ran to script. 7.4 units returned
1 unit Mother’s Touch @ 3.90 – And another yes
1 unit multi Emgrand Rose + Big Time Lantao to return $2.92 per unit – Not a comprehensive win by BTL but you had confidence at the top of the straight based on the sections. Another 2.9 units in the pot.
Almost the perfect day – we started with an awful result but more fool me for punting a Co race. After that, the ratings and the sectionals helped shine the light for a very successful day. 18.1 units returned for the recommended 10 unit spend.