Selections for Tuesday, 9 June racing at Palmerstom North (M3) and Addington (M9)
There’s 24 races across the two meetings and after the pain the predictor has been causing the bookies recently, you think that they bookies might be getting their own back today. Some really competitive racing which will be great to watch but we may want to be a little cautious especially outside our main bets.
The TAB seemed to have dropped their bonus back offer replacing it with a double up promotion – you win, you get double your winnings. Understandable although the bonus offers were a much better safety net.
I’ll be keeping some of own bank for the quaddies, especially if there is a carry forward. Will likely post a quaddie for PN later in the day and Addington if there is a carryforward.
Palmerston North M3 R10 Fools Russian (2)
Really nice first up effort to win at Hatrick on Friday night. Close enough to best time T&D and has won 3 of 6 over the distance and placed the other three times. Drawn nicely and most importantly maps to get a break on them.
RP $2.20 currently $2.60FF
Got the squeeze at the start and that was it. Hard to find the winner on any logical basis and the tote reflected that. Disappointing way to end the day.
Lay Lady Lay
Palmerston North M3 R10 Fools Russian (2)
Will all the options the TAB now have at their disposal, it is disappointing we still can’t in effect lay a runner eg runner v field. Bigtime Odette still hasn’t come back as well as she was racing before the lockdown and i couldn’t back her at worse than evens. Diesel maps to lead but doesn’t see out his races. I think the value is with Alfie (1) and Bailey (3). Bailey showed up in last week’s sectionals which is another plus. Ideally I would like to back the field to beat Odette but we’ll have a little on Alfie and Bailey instead.
Neither of the selections were winning chances but to be fair the point of this race was that the favourite was no value. A case where if we had $1 win on the other 7 runners we would have been very happy with the result. And when will the TAB provide the option to effectively lay a runner instead of encouraging punters to look at other options?
Palmerston North M3 R8 Chalk and Cheese (2)
Another race without a lot of early speed with Harpoon Harry likely to show up along with Tuff Temptress and they look a couple of the obvious dangers. That said, Chalk and Cheese loves the outside boxes and is a legitimate C5 dog so he could easily cross them from the outside. Has the best time in the field over the 410m.
RP $2.80 currently $3.40FF
Jumped ran and won. I blame the lack of a coffee before I posted my strategy for not including in the recommended bets but it was great money ($3.90 tote) for those that did back him. Back to C5 and he can pop up at times especially at Hatrick and at good value too.
Palmerston North M3 R7 Bigtime Fairy (6) and Bigtime Cooper
These two look the obvious quinella in the race. Both run well from the outside boxes and it would be no surprise to see them battling it out at the end of the back straight. I think Fairy is a little overs given she has the inside running and has the better fastest time too.
RP $4.00 currently $6.50FF
The race ran very much to script and the only surprise was the return on the quinella and trifecta.
Palmerston North M3 R2 Thomas William (5)
Was it it a long time first start back after lockdown; balloted out last week. He’s certainly not getting any younger but a repeat of his first up effort would have him right in the mix. The favourite maps to get out well and had the opening sectional last week to back it up. Still Jimmy is untried over the longer distance at Palmerston North.
RP $5.00 currently $9.00FF
Considering the favourite went around at $1.50 on the tote to win, the $3.20 to place for Thomas William was outstanding value. The predictor helped find the top three and with the favourite missing out, the $235 tri was nice money also.
Addington M9 R9 Van Bindi (3)
In a race without a lot of depth looks like the winner. Any trouble will obviously come from Troublesome Kev in box 1.
Recommended Strategy 10 Units
3 units Fools Russian @ $2.60 No early speed today and got spat out the back
1 unit Bigtime Fairy @ $6.50 Second
2 units quinella (or AB/AB/fld % trifecta) Bigtime Fairy + Bigtime Cooper quinella 3.5 units so returned 7 units ($10 trifecta would have returned $43.90 so 4.39 units x 2 = 8.78 units)
1 unit EW Thomas William (2 units total) Yes third @ $2.50 to place
1 unit each Bigtime Bailey @ $4 and Alfie @ $5 (2 units total) No luck with out selections an option to lay the favourite would have seen a return.
If you played the trifecta option with Fairy and Cooper, you would have made a small profit. I missed Chalk and Cheese in the strategy too so will ensure I have my morning coffee on time next week! The other point that stands out is that the option to lay a horse or dog is well overdue. If the TAB wants us to bet locally, then it needs to provide the options available elsewhere.