Selections for Tuesday, 19 May racing at Palmerstom North (M3) and Addington (M9)

An interesting day of racing with 24 races to choose from.  It looks like some competitive racing at PN while in over half the races at Addington today the favourite is worse than evens.

A reminder that there are TAB Bonus Back offers for races 1 and 2 at Addington today. 

Best Bet

Palmerston North M3 R4 Big Time Vince (6)

Vince is up in class for this but based on his time and sectionals, he’s easily good enough to win this.  Last start he missed away a bit but his record from 4-6 is a lot better than from inside.  He looks to have the early pace and last week ran a sizzling 23.19 which was only beaten by BT Lanie.

RP $2.00 currently $2.40FF

One of those dogs – last week we thought he might miss the start and he blasted out.  Just didn’t look right today but turn the page and move on.

Value Bet

Palmerston North M3 R11 Big Time Seth (7)

The challenge in this race is how to rate a first starter from Aus.  I have no doubt that Zipping Sarah will have trialled at the track and be ready.  Likewise, if Sarah wasn’t in the race I would expect Seth to be a lot shorter based on his times last week and winner over 520m at Hatrick on Friday night.  Seth had the best opening sectional for the 457m last week and if he repeats that he will go close at good money.

RP $2.80 currently $4.50FF

Definitely got some value with Seth – was happy when he managed to get to the rails and then was relatively comfortable from there.  Helped turn a nice profit on the day.

Sectional Special

Palmerston North M3 R6 Big Time Fairy (8)

Big Time Cooper is a great dog or perhaps more accurately was a great dog.  He’s been out for over 200 while another of the top rated dogs BT Brody is back after 138 days.  Over the last couple of weeks there’s been plenty of races where the lack of exposed recent form hasn’t helped and this doesn’t look like a race to punt with a lot of confidence.  However, BT Fairy had the fastest opening sectional last week and is drawn perfectly.  If she can jump and lead, the others will have to chase her down. 

RP $2.80 currently $3.20FF

Just didn’t get the jump today – with a few more runs under his belt Cooper would have held on.  Tough day at the office so far although we are pretty much guaranteed to get our money back at worse on the strategy.

Long Shot

Palmerston North M3 R2

I think there’s a potential play in Race 2 with a couple of runners at nice odds.  The ratings suggest this is a pretty even race with only Gotcha Marshall not rated.  Little Scamp (8) has drawn to suit and ran second last week first run back.  Millie Prince (3) should be on the early pace which is an assist and also is drawn to suit.  The two have the top ratings for the distance and have won the most times over the track and distance.  With BT Odette being so short in the market, you can get both at double figure odds.  Worth a small play and include in exotics.

Nice when they come in but no surprises with the Predictor rating Little Scamp on top.  The two selections were the first two away and the draw allowed Little Scamp to scoot around the outside and was never challenged.  The trifecta ($250) and F4 ($1370)  weren’t hard to find with the two selections, the favourite and the ratings has the second dog second rated.  Nice start to the day.

Multi Makers

Addington M9 R6 Van Evie (3) Currently $1.40 Yes – first short fav to get up

Addington M9 R11 Fast Angel(3) Currently $1.65 Yes

 

Recommended Strategy 10 Units

4 units Big Time Vince @ $2.40  No – very disappointing today.

2 units Big Time Seth @ $4.50  Yes – had it under control for the last 150m. 9 units profit

1 units Zipping Sarah/Big Time Seth quinella No

.5 units EW both Little Scamp ($13) + Millie Prince ($12) – 2 units total Yes Little Scamp 1st, Millie prince 4th returns 9.00 units

1 units Big Time Fairy @ $3.20 No found it a little tough up in class

18 units return for 8 unit profit.