Update Monday 10 am

A tough week last week although while our main bets dipped out, one of the money back runners did the job for us.

Today looks another tough day at the office so be selective with your betting.  I’ll have a look at the place 6 or the quaddie if there is a carry forward with a later update.

No money back offers today at Palmerston – but there are on the Wingatui harness and gallops.

Next update around 2pm.

David

Bet of the Day M3 R10 – Trojan Hoarse (3)

Our bet of the day last week and was never in the hunt although the draw was the concern last week.  No such concerns this week and he won well at Cambridge mid week so is still in great form.

Has been the dominant week to week sprinter for some time.  He’s won 8 from 11 from box 3 and he maps to get away well today.

Not a big price but for a dog with his dominant record, we can’t get greedy.

Opened at $1.80FF and you think this will shorten closer to start.

A good example of value versus price.  If you’re using to punting horses, then $1.80 is pretty short.  Yet as we saw here, after the first stride or two the $1.80 proved to be great value.

Value Bet – M3 R10 Cheeseball (3)

Cheeseball is one of those dogs whose record would have been a lot better had he had more speed off the boxes.
Keep in mind it is a 6 dog race so it should help the backmarkers more than a full capacity field.  The map has the favourite Bigtime Jackson leading out from the box inside Cheeseball while outside him he has an extremely slow trapper plus an empty box.
He rated 72 from a similar draw back in February and a time anywhere near that would have him win comfortably.
Jackson in a threat from box 2 with his early speed but if Cheeseball can at least find a little clear air out of the boxes, he should power home – he has four of the top 5 closing sectionals over the past 3 months.
Currently $3.60 rated price $2.90

Rugs Challenge

As I mentioned, there looks to be plenty of open races today so expect a few upsets.  On that basis, I was interested to see what the bookies had the white rug priced at and was pleasantly surprised to see the $8FF on offer.
The one negative is that there is one scratching but based on the recommended bets you would like to think there is at worst a minimum of 4 if not 5 points in those two races.  There’s a live chance in race 1 as well so the $8 is definitely worth a gold coin.  Or two.
Place 6
No carry forward on the quaddie so a suggested place 6

R7 2, 3, 8

R8 1, 5, 8

R9 1, 3, 7

R10 2, 3

R11 2, 5, 6

R12 1, 2, 7

486 combos but I’ve got a bit of cover in the last race in particular in case the short favourite misses. $25 for 5%

 

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