Update Monday 10 am

Another good week last week with our two main bets getting up and the value bet winning after opening at over $8.

Today does look a lot harder but that won’t stop as trying.

Next update around 2pm


Bet of the Day M3 R3 – Trojan Hoarse (7)

On a day where there’s some tough fields, it’s hard to find a standout.

He’s definitely beatable from the draw but his early speed and power should help him get away.  He’s won 3 from 6 here and earlier in his career was tried over the middle distance.  So all he needs is a clean getaway and he should be too good for these.

Opened at $2.30FF and you think this will shorten closer to start.

Value Bet – M3 R7 Bigtime Seth (2)

Not big value today but there’s a couple of things to like about Big Time Seth.

First, he downgrades today.  Second it’s the best draw he’s had for almost two months.

He doesn’t have top end box speed although I’m hoping the improved box draw will allow him to get away better.  The sectionals saw his best sectional will have him sharing the lead and that would be the winning of the race.

Thrilling Rosa has to be a threat but she is 1 from 3 track and distance and has only just come up in class.

The other threat could be Cheeseball who tends to get back and come home strongly.

Seth is currently paying $3.20.

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

This looks like a benefit for Usain Bale (2) a winner of 1 from 4 with three seconds.  The only concern is the first time at Palmerston North.

I could end up with egg on my face as Yasawa Lights won first up in NZ.  The issue I have with that is while it looked like an impressive win, the time wasn’t that flash.

The other interesting start is that out of the entire field, only one runner has run the 457m at Palmerston North and that is just one run.

I’m happy to stay with Usain Bale and thanks to Yasawa Lights, the $2.10 is pretty good value.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

Another race where a decent number of runners have yet run over the race distance and a couple of those rate on top.

Go Diego (5) has been running top races over the 520 at Addington.  There’s a slight concern with Big Time Abbi in the outside box likely to start well and possibly take his racing line.

Shermo Bale (1) is another southern raider.  What interests me is that he hasn’t been running out the 520m so you wonder whether the 457m will actually suit him better.  Not a dead set box 1 specialist but there doesn’t look to be a lot of early speed on his outer.

Big Time Amber (6) has the clear benefit of early speed as I noted above.  She’s another having her first crack over the 457m.  The concern for me is that she has yet to run a a time in either of her two races but again it is her first attempt over 457m.

This will be a fascinating race with the different form lines.  The bookies also have Go Diego on top at $2.10.  He looks a good money back option too.  I like the value around Shermo Bale.  The draw should help ensure the money back part of the equation while at $7 to win he’s a nice each way bet.


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