Update Monday 11.30 am
First update – races 1 and 2 at Palmerston North with the money back offers.
Good punting and good luck!
Bet of the day M9 Race 12 Jinja Mongo (1)
The key to this race is the the draw. Last Star (2) has early speed but will undoubtedly head right. That should create plenty of room for Jinja Mongo who also happens to have a 50% winning rate from 8 starts in box 1. He’s also recently downgraded and has a much superior draw. His one box 1 start in his last 5 was a a C5q where he still managed fourth.
So back to a a straight C4 with almost a guaranteed run along the rails, he looks like great money at $3.50FF.
The winning of the race was the wide running of Last Star – Jinja Mongo just hugged the railed while Last Star did everything in her power to help us out. After the multi went south with the second in the last at Manawatu, it was nice to get the bet of the day home. After opening at $3.50, closed at $2.60FF.
Value Bet of the day M12 Race 12 Plan Stan (6)
Once more. But only once. I feel like I’ve been paying the training bills for Stan over the last month. He ran a couple of cracker races in January when only just beaten by some very good dogs while the bulk of his subsequent starts since have seen him drawn inside when he really needs an outside draw.
Last start was a tad disappointing but he just didn’t get away well enough but this looks on paper a much easier field. His effort last start would have been good enough to beat most of these across all of their last 6 starts.
While he’s hard to back with confidence, you have to think he’s got to have a decent chance in this field so long as he can get away well. The map suggests he can be in the first two or three and that might be the making of the race.
Ouch. Jumped to the lead and looked like Stan was finally going to deliver but Bigtime Kate was just too good on the day.
M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer
Back to the C0 maidens and if you’ve been reading this site regularly you’ll already understand that these aren’t the easiest races to analyse due to the lack of exposed form. And as we’ve said a couple of times, the C0 races in the CD are also very competitive.
An interesting race with some challenges in comparing different form lines.
Thrilling Izzy (6) ran an outstanding time for a maiden win over 375m at Cambridge first up. She was from box 3 so has a worse draw to contend with and first time racing at the mighty Manawatu.
Big Time Fairy (2) sprinkled some magic leading all the way to win over 520m at Hatrick. The time was ok but not flash but she did run second at her first start at Manauwatu over the 410m.
They look the obvious candidates and solid bet back options.
I noted last week that Big Time Kevin (5) had run credible times and it was no surprise to seem him win at Hatrick during the weekend.
Big Time Joey (7) won in very good time also during the week but this is 105m longer and he has a significantly worse draw.
Bookies think pretty much the same. Not a lot of value with both favourites pretty short but you would think both good chances of money back. Of the two, I would favour Izzy based on her 375 time.
M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer
There’s 4 i like in this – Bigtime Daisy (7), Mothers Touch (8), Allegro Lanie (4) and Tazia (2). The speed map shows the first three are likely to be the first three out as well.
Bigtime Dusty rates on top and has enough early speed to over come the outside draw. To be fair, she’s placed 2 times out of 3 from box 7 and has won 2 from 3 in box 6.
Mothers Touch is another who is capable of winning this and the draw really helps. She is a wide runner so Dusty may help bring her into the race although she would likely need Dusty to run into some problems to win with her wide running style.
Allegro Lanie rates well and also maps well but is yet to win in seven previous attempts over the 410m.
Tazia. Where do I start? At her best she rates well enough to be in the mix and she is best from boxes 2 and 3 but her recent starts don’t generate a lot of confidence.
Magic Flynn has a lot of support and to be fair has won 6 from 21 starts here – the most wins over the distance in the field. However, he just hasn’t run the times required and rates poorly in this. Like Tazia, has the ability but not currently in the zone.
The bookies must have read this analysis! They had Dusty as a clear favourite and hard to argue with that. Mother’s Touch is my second pick simply because the draw favours. As I mentioned, she will need Dusty to run into trouble given the line she will run but a small gold coin on the quinella could be the way to go.
A win for the ratings. The ratings had this as an even race with Allegro Lanie mapped to lead. Lanie did lead and this time held strongly for a clear victory. Dusty was a tad disappointing after missing the jump while Mother’s Touch ran pretty much as predicted.