Update Monday am
Next Update Monday after race 2
Good punting and good luck!
David
M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer
Back to the C0 maidens and if you’ve been reading this site regularly you’ll already understand that these aren’t the easiest races to analyse due to the lack of exposed form. And as we’ve said a couple of times, the C0 races are also very competitive.
Big Time Roonie (3) has had one start here for a placing behind Fools Russian and Allegro Will, highlighting just how competitive these races have been. He drew box 1 that day and you think the way he races he’ll be a little better from box 3. He also won last start at Hatrick, rates on top so looks the obvious candidate.
Big Time Fairy (4) is a first starter so keep an eye on the tote for any educated bets.
Big Time Kevin (7) is a ten start maiden but has been competitive at times.
Happy to stick to selection Big Time Roonie. The $2.50 is a little more than i expected the bookies to be offering.
Ouch – a replay to watch if you ever want to see the challenges of punting C0 races. Roonie had no chance today after a promising initial few steps.
M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer
Thrilling Hudson (8) got rolled last start at Cambridge but you think box 8 could well suit. Has only raced twice at Palmerston North but rates on top based on times elsewhere.
Tuff Temptress (1) rates strongly in this but the inside draw may not be the best for her.
Big Time Dusty (3) is next to his best box and has recently downgraded.
There’s likely to be some value around Paris End who is downgrading. Hit and miss from the outside boxes but ran a really nice third 5 starts back beaten by Big Time Gwynn and Rapid Fire. Yet to win after 9 starts track and distance but has run 3 places.
While I think Thrilling Hudson is the likely the top selection, there’s no value in $1.70. With the favourite being so short, the converse means there must be some value elsewhere. Paris End at $10 is great money for a downgrader and also rates clearly in the top three so should be a good chance to get your money back.
A tough start to the day – missing the jump is the cardinal sin in dog racing Paris End was never a chance after missing the start. The one thing we go right was that the favourite was no value at $1.70 and we saw why.
Bet of the Day – Race 5 Broke Brad (3)
Two starts back, Brad was beaten by Thrilling Baxter in a C1 with Baxter rating 68 that day – Baxter is going around as a favourite in a C1/2 two races later.
In two of his last three starts here, Brad has run better than 50 which would likely be enough to win this or go close. The second favourite Mac has drawn inside and could possibly lead which might create a little space for Brad to get a drag into the race.
You would expect nothing more than honest runs from Bigtime Fred and Thomas William but they haven’t been winning later.
On the other hand, Brad has won 3 from 12 here and looks well placed.
Rated price $2.50 currently $2.80FF.
After a couple of shockers in the first two, our best bet pretty much went to the script and worthy of an Oscar nomination. The two favourites set up the race and as expected Brad was too strong. The $2.80 was great money too.
Value Bet – Race 10 Plan Stan (6)
Two weeks ago I was very keen on Plan Stan based on his strong form leading into the race, in particular a strong second to Big Time Gwynn. Watching the replay, I accepted that the inside draw just didn’t suit and the same again last week. It’s a tough race although the two favourites have yet to race at Palmerston North and Stan’s best time is the best by some distance.
He’s no certainly to win but he clearly rates in the top three so at $2.15 a place he looks a reasonable money back bet. 1/3 EW would be a sensible play and I would expect that his opening odds of $14 would drift.
Definitely an each way play but worth a look at those prices.
Small margins – almost second but had to settle for fourth.
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