This looks like a race where any number of runners could show up.
Belmonts (2) blew the start at Hatrick on Friday and then fell. So there’s a flag there but he’s drawn to feature and and should be able to have a decent crack at holding the rail with no speed on his inside. However, the TAB says unlikely to start.
Big Time Abbi (7) has to be taken with caution as she runs wide but the black rug should suit.
Zipping Luther (4) was labelled a few weeks ago as my value bet … and he missed … and then of course I missed when he won here two weeks back.
Mothers Touch (5) is another that rates well and shows up in the sectionals. She’s another noted wide runner although her best record is in the yellow rug. Having Abbi on her outer could actually help.
Born Quick (6) is in good form having won two from his last three starts. He has early speed but will need it as he won’t want to tangle with Mothers Touch on his inside.
Memphis Jewel (1) is an intriguing runner having his first start at Palmerston North. He’s a slow trapper but with a couple of noted wide runners he could find a bit of space, especially if Belmonts is scratched. Tuff Temptress wouldn’t be a total surprise either although her record from inside boxes is pretty poor.
It’s a really tough race to sort out and the start as is generally the case will tell the story. If Born Quick can get out and clear any trouble, that might be the making of the race. Likewise, Abbi is drawn to suit her style but there are a number of wide runners in this race and you wonder whether they will get in each others way. Mothers Touch and Zipping Luther both have to have winning chances.
So having named half the field, I’m likely to go wide or wild – take your pick – and have a small gold coin on Memphis Jewel. He’s got great box 1 stats, no speed on his outside, and most of the field will be creating room rather than crowding him. He’s another downgrader too. If Abbi misses, I think there could be some real value in this race and at double figures, I think Memphis Jewel is worth a small investment.
Memphis Jewel was a handy 3rd at great value, Luther went a hell of a race to win.
Bet of the Day – M3 R9 Seve (1)
I don’t normally like punting dogs having their first start at a new track but it’s actually the distance that sells this one to me. Seve has been handing it to some classy dogs over 480m at Addington. The problem of course is that the middle distance races are over 520!
The inside draw should help although the main danger, Big Time Jackson is drawn on his outside in box 2. I’m surprised at what the bookies have priced Elsa at – I would definite include in my top 3 for quaddies.
However, if Seve brings his southern form and can hold the rails, he should absolutely love the middle middle distance.
Rated price $2 currently $2.20FF.
Not often the day goes pretty much to script but Seve did exactly what we expected. He was definitely stronger at the start of the race but the shorter distance suited down to the ground. In the end it was a comfortable run and if you got on at $2.20 there was some excellent value. The multi with Memphis Jewel to place paid nearly $60 for every $10.
Value Bet M3 Race 2 Memphis Jewel (1)
No great confidence at all both worth a small investment each way for two. First, if you can get double figure odds why wouldn’t you. Second, as I explained above, you can see a scenario were the dogs from box 3 out get a little tangled up and with no speed on his outside, Memphis Jewel has every chance of holding the rail.
Rated price $5 currently $10FF.
The race worked out pretty much as expected although Memphis Jewel was even slower than mapped. On a day when three or four dogs are running round to win at $1.60 or worse, the $3.40 on the tote to place was great money.
It’s a day with a lot of even races and plenty of races with dogs getting some experience of Palmerston North is pursuit of the Golden Chase.
However, there’s a couple of multi makers worth a look:
M9 Race 2 – Fools Russian (3) clear rating standout plus the main dangers are drawn on the outer. Currently $1.60FF Yes managed to just pick up the pacemaker Eye Kno
M9 Race 3 – Allegro Will (7) another top rater also paying $1.60FF Almost but just got into an awkward position and couldn’t pick up the leader.