Update Monday am
Next update after M3 race 2
No C0 races in the first two races. As Roso has been saying recently, the C0 have been so competitive that dogs that have been missing out in C0 races have gone on to clock up multiple wins after they’ve managed to break through.
While the Coles dominate the meetings in the CD, they do some with a large number of talented dogs. So what we are seeing is a lot of very even racing. On top of that, beware of a a decent number of runners having their first starts at Palmerston North chasing qualification for the Golden Chase.
Good punting and good luck!
David
M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer
Magic Flynn (1) downgrades and has won 6 times out of 19 attempts over the distance but is a slow starter. Has to be in the mix but will have to improve on recent efforts.
Tazia (6) is a tough to one to follow. All the starts say she could win and she downgrades today as well. She rates on top but 2 wins from 23 attempts over the 410m means she’s more miss than hit.
Thrilling Dexter (5) can’t be excluded but the downside is that it’s his first race at Palmerston North.
The bookies agree with our assessment that the three listed above are the top three chances. I’m leaning towards Tazia on the downgrade and with not a lot of early speed in the race, she could lead them up. However, as I noted she doesn’t win them out of turn but this does look like a decent opportunity for Tazia.
It was easy enough to narrow down to the top three chances but the first two favourites were pretty awful to be fair. No surprises that Magic Flynn was slow out but Tazia again disappointed.
M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer
This looks like a race where any number of runners could show up.
Belmonts (2) blew the start at Hatrick on Friday and then fell. So there’s a flag there but he’s drawn to feature and and should be able to have a decent crack at holding the rail with no speed on his inside. However, the TAB says unlikely to start.
Big Time Abbi (7) has to be taken with caution as she runs wide but the black rug should suit.
Zipping Luther (4) was labelled a few weeks ago as my value bet … and he missed … and then of course I missed when he won here two weeks back.
Mothers Touch (5) is another that rates well and shows up in the sectionals. She’s another noted wide runner although her best record is in the yellow rug. Having Abbi on her outer could actually help.
Born Quick (6) is in good form having won two from his last three starts. He has early speed but will need it as he won’t want to tangle with Mothers Touch on his inside.
Memphis Jewel (1) is an intriguing runner having his first start at Palmerston North. He’s a slow trapper but with a couple of noted wide runners he could find a bit of space, especially if Belmonts is scratched. Tuff Temptress wouldn’t be a total surprise either although her record from inside boxes is pretty poor.
It’s a really tough race to sort out and the start as is generally the case will tell the story. If Born Quick can get out and clear any trouble, that might be the making of the race. Likewise, Abbi is drawn to suit her style but there are a number of wide runners in this race and you wonder whether they will get in each others way. Mothers Touch and Zipping Luther both have to have winning chances.
So having named half the field, I’m likely to go wide or wild – take your pick – and have a small gold coin on Memphis Jewel. He’s got great box 1 stats, no speed on his outside, and most of the field will be creating room rather than crowding him. He’s another downgrader too. If Abbi misses, I think there could be some real value in this race and at double figures, I think Memphis Jewel is worth a small investment.
Memphis Jewel was a handy 3rd at great value, Luther went a hell of a race to win.
Bet of the Day – M3 R9 Seve (1)
I don’t normally like punting dogs having their first start at a new track but it’s actually the distance that sells this one to me. Seve has been handing it to some classy dogs over 480m at Addington. The problem of course is that the middle distance races are over 520!
The inside draw should help although the main danger, Big Time Jackson is drawn on his outside in box 2. I’m surprised at what the bookies have priced Elsa at – I would definite include in my top 3 for quaddies.
However, if Seve brings his southern form and can hold the rails, he should absolutely love the middle middle distance.
Rated price $2 currently $2.20FF.
Not often the day goes pretty much to script but Seve did exactly what we expected. He was definitely stronger at the start of the race but the shorter distance suited down to the ground. In the end it was a comfortable run and if you got on at $2.20 there was some excellent value. The multi with Memphis Jewel to place paid nearly $60 for every $10.
Value Bet M3 Race 2 Memphis Jewel (1)
No great confidence at all both worth a small investment each way for two. First, if you can get double figure odds why wouldn’t you. Second, as I explained above, you can see a scenario were the dogs from box 3 out get a little tangled up and with no speed on his outside, Memphis Jewel has every chance of holding the rail.
Rated price $5 currently $10FF.
The race worked out pretty much as expected although Memphis Jewel was even slower than mapped. On a day when three or four dogs are running round to win at $1.60 or worse, the $3.40 on the tote to place was great money.
Multi Makers
It’s a day with a lot of even races and plenty of races with dogs getting some experience of Palmerston North is pursuit of the Golden Chase.
However, there’s a couple of multi makers worth a look:
M9 Race 2 – Fools Russian (3) clear rating standout plus the main dangers are drawn on the outer. Currently $1.60FF Yes managed to just pick up the pacemaker Eye Kno
M9 Race 3 – Allegro Will (7) another top rater also paying $1.60FF Almost but just got into an awkward position and couldn’t pick up the leader.
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