Update Monday am
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This week should make for more rewarding analysis as neither races are C0.
M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer
It may not be a C0 lottery but it still is a competitive race.
Belmonts (3) had a nice winning streak before missing out at Cambridge in NZRS race. The draw suits and he’s shown a good racing attitude. Up in class which has to be at least a slight flag.
Mother’s Touch appeals – she’s a wide runner so the outside box suits. She has run opening and closing sectionals that per her right in this.
Big Time May (1) rates well but the inside draw doesn’t suit. Likely to be seeming making ground late. (Scratched)
Big Time Pluto (4) took a while to win her first race then won three in rapid time. She’s found C2 racing a little tougher.
While Belmonts is a worthy favourite and a solid bet back option, I think the value is with Mothers Touch and have made her the value bet of the day.
M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer
Race 2 is no easier. There’s multiple chances in this race. Dogs downgrading, dogs on the way up, dogs spinning round in circles. Let’s look at runner by runner.
- Born Fab – record from the inside plus ratings says no.
- Zipping Luther – I tipped it out a couple of weeks as my value runner and it bombed … then won at great money last Monday. Goes from C1 to mixed C2/3 so up against it.
- Tazia – when she wins you can get great money – and I don’t think she is the worst here at all. Maps to be on the pace too.
- Bigtime Puma – had been dropping back down the grades but struck last start. In the mix.
- Bigtime Leads – another who has been dropping down the grades – has been showing up in the early rush but not finished off her races. Has had a break for a couple of months but this does look like a race she can be competitive in.
- Mahala Bay – note the worst but no winning form track and distance is the obvious concern
- Magic Flynn – yet another who has been facing tougher fields than this but lacks early pace and would need to show improvement.
- All Black Star – hard to find a reason to recommend. Prefer others.
Bet of the day M9 R5 Plan Stan (3)
Plan Stan almost did it for us in a bonus bet race last week. The winner Bigtime Anton had a pretty charmed run but franked that form with another win on Friday night.
Two starts back, Stan ran a close second to Big Time Gwyn rating 60 in C1 which would have been a decent enough time to win a fair share of races at Palmerston North. It’s been a great form race with two other recent winners coming out of the race after failing to do better than 3rd.
The other factor in Stan’s favour is that the second rated runner Big Time Abbi is a noted wide runner so it should create room for Stan while potentially causing problems for runners draw outside 4.
I think Stan is no worse than Abbi the way the race pans out so the $3.90 for Stand compared to $2.30 for Abbi is great value.
Sectional Special M3 Race 1 Mothers Touch
For each way value, I like Mother’s Touch in the first race of the day. It’s a competitive race as I’ve noted above but I think Mother’s Touch is boxed away to suit. She has enough box speed and a wide running style so any early dramas shouldn’t be a concern.
With her running style she’s lost races by running wider and allow dogs benefit closer to the rail. However, there should be more confidence that if she can get the start she won’t be run down as she has three of the best four closing sectionals.
Belmonts looks the obvious danger and I’d be happy with a silver coin on the quinella.
As I noted above, Belmonts looks like a good chance but the value around Mothers Touch makes her a good each way bet.