Update Monday 11.45 am

Added best bet and value bet.  No more recommendations today but will update after of the races below.

Just 12 races today at Palmerston North.

The TAB is running the Bonus Back offer on the first two races at Palmerston North only.  I’ll update later tomorrow morning after bookies have updated the odds and we’ve had a look at the scratchings.

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

The one thing that has stood out over the last few weeks is how hard the C0 races can be to analyse.  Sure, sometimes there’s a standout dog with outstanding trial form or a dog that has raced previously with above an average rating.

However, most times it’s hard to analyse the races due to the lack of exposed form.  On top of that, the lack of experience makes it difficult to predict any likely race pattern.

One other consideration if you are new to Monday racing is that there’s quite a difference between sprint races at Hatrick (305m) and the shortest distance now raced at Palmerston North (410m).

For me the key – as it almost always is – is box speed and ideally a good draw.  So Fools Russian (2) looks well placed with some early speed an a decent draw.  Concern is that she is a 12 race maiden but she has been generally beaten by quality greyhounds.

Allegro Lexi (4) is another with early speed while conversely Bigtime Kevin is generally slow away but has the second best time over the course and distance from his one start here.  Allegro Will gets a start from box 7 and is a last start winner.

The other runner in the market is Big Time Roonie who has had just the one start at Hatrick but the bookies have kept him very short.

The money has come for Fools Russian and she’s into $1.80 after opening at $2.50.  She has to win one soon and rates on top and looks the safest bet from a money back perspective but not a lot of value.  Kevin is also worth a gold coin simply because he’s well over what I think he should be paying.

Pretty much to script although as Roso mentioned the C0 races at PN are extremely competitive.  Money back plus a bit to reinvest.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

A really interesting C1 race with dogs new to C1 along with some dogs back in class.

Sub Twenty Three took a while to clear C0 but has been growing in confidence with more racing.  The main concern is that thus far he’s performed better at Hatrick.  One won 1 from 6 over 410m at Palmerston North which is the concern but is a definite chance.

The draw should help Big Time Harper (2) but his starts aren’t consistently quick.  If he can jump and hold the rain, he is a big chance.

Plan Stan (7) is the interesting runner for me.  Has a lot of early pace and it wouldn’t surprise to see him lead early.  He’s 0 from 15 starts over the 410m which clearly doesn’t give us a lot of confidence but he has run the fastest time in this field and has raced in C3 and C4 races in the past.

The other runner who rates well is Elouera Mist (4).

Interesingly the bookies have agreed with the top four runners.  Sub Twenty Three is a definite winner chance but he will need to continue to improve.  I think Plan Stan offers a bit of value, is ok from the outside boxes but critically has the early box speed.  You should be safe with either for the money back option.

Plan Stan on top for me but it is a race where any four could win.

Close – Stan didn’t quite have the early speed to avoid all the early trouble but he did avoid the worst of it.  Anton got the charmed run along the inside and had too much of a break.  Again, money back pretty stress free but not quite the result we wanted.

Best Bet Race 4 Big Time Gwyn (8)

As is often the case, the key to this race is likely to be the start and Gwyn looks like to have plenty of early speed to cross from the outside box.  She has the two fastest opening sectionals both recorded in the last couple of weeks and has won from the outside box.

She also has two of the top three closing sectionals, only bettered by Mothers Touch who would appear to be drawn upside down in box 1.

Gwyn has won three in a row and should make it four today.  The others to consider for exotics are Big Time Pluto (7), Big Time May (3) and Mothers Touch (1).

Outbobbed.  Pretty much to script but just beaten by a better dog on the day.

Value Bet of the Day Race 10 Big Time Elsa (3)

The ratings and sectionals suggest that there are two runners in the mix here – Big Time Jackson (1) and Big Time Elsa (3).  However the bookies have Jackson at $2 with Elsa currently at $7.

Elsa has similar opening sectionals to Jackson and slightly better closing sectionals.  I agree Jackson has a better draw but you would have to think that Elsa is overs based on her past runs.

With the way the market is priced, there’s a number of plays here – you could split your bet down the middle so that if Jackson wins you get your money back on split 70/30 – if Jackson wins, you will make a small profit while if Elsa wins you double your money.

Either way, Elsa looks great value and worth including in all bets.

A bit of a strange race – it almost worked out as per the preview but the dog in box 2 jumped and kept Elsa out wide while at the same time creating a channel for Jackson to make up ground along the rail after a tardy start.  So the saver saved and Elsa will fight another day.

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