Selections for Monday 20 January 2020

Update Monday

Just 12 races today at Palmerston North.

The TAB is running the Bonus Back offer on the first two races at Palmerston North only.  I’ll update later tomorrow morning after bookies have had their scones and coffee … it is a public holiday on Jackson St after all.  Let’s hope they don’t charge a holiday surplus!

Sorry for no updates.  A tough day at the office but we’ll be back again next week and do it all again.

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

Let’s remember the caveats – these C0 races are hard to analyse when there’s little to analyse.  Only a couple of runners have even had a crack over the 410m.

The one thing to focus on in these types of races is any evidence of early speed.  That can be useful given that there’s no guarantee what the inexperienced runners will do out of the boxes.

One runner who showed enough early speed in his first run was Softly Burgess (4) – not blistering early speed but there’s not a lot elsewhere.  He has the best rating in the field – albeit at Hatrick – but showed good acceleration so the extra distance shouldn’t be an option.

The other runner with exposed early speed is the other favoured runner Bigtime Eden (3).  She won over 520 at Hatrick and was placed behind Sub Twenty Three in the similar race last week.  Was out quick but not the strongest through the line.

Might not be a lot of value but the aim is to ensure at worst we get our money back.  The bookies have pretty much agreed with our assessment and Softy is paying around $2.30FF.  Looks the best option in the race but expect Eden to show up in the early rush.

Race went pretty much as scripted and no real surprises to see a bit of a surprise with Harley popping up early – the nature of these types of races.  Money back safe.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

Another C0 race where there’s even less exposed form than the race where we thought there was a lack of exposed form!

Just the seven runners so I suppose we have better than 50% chance of getting our money back (remember, fixed odds win bets on your TAB account).

The obvious selection is Fools Russian (8) who is dropped back in distance for this race.  If she can avoid any problems from the outside draw, she should have too much strength for this lot.  And she does map to be on the early pace too.

Allegro Lexxi (2) has a better draw and ran an ok race in her debut at Hatrick and was running out as well.

Not a lot of value in the favourite but hard to recommend against it yet hard to feel any great confidence either.

Second verse … same as the first.  Money back safe.

Best Bet – Race 12 Bigtime Annie (3)

The ideal combination for a good bet at the dogs is a a dog who rates on top – and in particular has the best times in the last few races and over the career – while also having the early speed to be dictate and avoid any problems behind.

Annie ticks all those boxes – while there may be one or two dogs outside her with early pace, the two dogs inside her are clearly slower so Annie should be able to hold the rails.  With a clear run, she is the best dog in this field and rates clearly on top.  Last start she won a combined C3/4 race at Cambridge so this should be a little easier being a straight C3 race.

Biggest danger has to be Simply Smooth while Bigtime Elsa looks a little overs at $14.

Happy to take the $2.20 FF on offer on Annie and suspect she will shorten later in the day.

Got away well enough but didn’t get into the position she wanted and battled on for third.  Elsa was indeed overs and ran second.

Value Bet of the Day – Race 7 Bigtime Thor (5)

I have no great confidence in Thor – he is the epitome of a hit and miss runner.  However, in this field, he does map to show up early and almost unbelievably he has two of the three best opening sectionals over the last three months along with two of the top four best closing sectionals.

If he picks the jump he’s good enough to win this and I think the $10 is fair trade for the risk involved.  The favourite Trophy Trophy finally picked the jump last start at Hatrick and won in an impressive time to show at his best he can cope in C5.  However, he’s drawn out today on a different track and hasn’t shown the same form at Palmerston so has to be backed on on trust.

It’s not a bet I would unload on but at the price offered with an investment.

RP $4.50 currently paying $10FF

Miss.  Jumped OK and looked promising for a while then seemed to get a check or run on and then showed all the resilience of the Warriors at their worst.