Selections for Monday 13 January 2020

Update 11am

24 races across the two venues – Addington and Palmerston North.

The TAB is running the Bonus Back offer on the first two races at Palmerston North only.

I’ll update this afternoon after the early quaddies to see if there’s any bonus money going into the late quaddies.  No carry forward.

M5 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

Last week, we had Allegro Lanie (6) as our bet in the C0 and she ran a decent second.  Since then she’s gone on to win at Hatrick.  I still think that she’s better at Hatrick but she has the box speed to put herself into the race.

Sub Twenty Three (2) rates well and has also drawn well although he’s yet to have drawn inside box 3.  He has the best closing sectional in the race.  Bigtime Angel (3) Rated well first start here but has disappointed since.  Miss Adobe (2) showed a show speed after a slow beginning and could show up in the early rush.  Hard to draw any conclusions from her one race where she was well beaten but it’s an open race.

It’s worth repeating that the C0 races can be a challenge with the lack of exposed form.  One thing that was also noticeable last week was that the money came for the winner late in the betting so it can be worthwhile to keep an eye on the betting markets.

Those C0 races are pretty tough but we had the first two home if not in the right order.  A pretty easy run for money back tho so we can go again.

M5 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

If you like one in this race, back it – it looks like a race with any number of chances.

Thrilling Bruce (3) is the bookies’ elect and can’t argue with that.  He’s one for one track and distance.  The main negative is that he maps to get back early.

Bees and Birds (6) is a consistent runner but at this stage think he’s better at Hatrick.  However, he does have a bit of early speed so has to be in the mix.  Giraffe Club (8) also maps to get forward as well.

Bigtime Sheer (4) was woefully out of form but her last two have shown a lot more promise and a win is not far away.  That said, she’s another who I think is better at Hatrick – she’s yet to win at Palmerston North.

You could arguably make a case for all the other runners too.  One I think is worth consideration at the price offered is Tazia.  The inside draw is not ideal but if she can jump and run as the map suggests, she could be the upsetter at great money.

Hard to find a recommendation in this race.  That suggests that Bruce isn’t great value but he does look a decent chance provided he can get a clean getaway – and that of course is the big question.

As we noted, Bruce was likely to get away a bit slowly and so it proved.  If you’d backed the one dog Tazia you got a pretty good run for your money.

Bet of the Day – M5 Race 3 – Big Time Frosty (3)

Frosty looks a decent bet in race three at Palmerston North.  She’s back in C4 class but has been competing in open class races and ran third in a C4/5 sprint at Hatrick.  Today’s race is effectivley a C4 event but it still is a little easier.  She maps to be on the early speed based on her sectionals and she also has a strong closing sectional.

She has the best track and distance rating of all runners in this race and the best times in recent racing.

I rate her at $2.30 so there’s a little bit of value in the $2.60FF offered by the bookies.

Missed the start and never a winning chance after that.

Value Bet – M5 R12 Bigtime Pluto (5)

It’s a day where I’ve struggled to find a runner I like at decent value but I do think the favourite in the last at Palmerston North is unders.  Jonie has had two starts at PN and was beaten fair and square last week.  Neither start have rated all that well – he’s yet to rate better than 20 at Palmerston North while Pluto has rated above 30 twice.

Last week, I was pretty confident that Belmonts had the edge – I’m not so confident this week but I do think Pluto offers a bit of value in this race.

As an aside, it is a pity that the TAB doesn’t yet offer the option to back the field against the favourite or similar – it would be ideal in this type of scenario.

Once Jonie only had a length or two on Pluto by the end of the back straight, it was looking pretty good for the value bet.  The money came for Jonie so you could still have got well over $4 on final field.  Nice result.

Multi Makers

I had put a circle around Opa’s Dream Addington Race 5 as my likely best bet.  She rates clearly on top but is hard to see a lot of value in $1.65.  Yes

Bigtime Oddette (M5 Race 6) looks the best bet in race 6 but she did bomb a race a couple of starts back when heavily favoured to win.  The $2 could be attractive for a couple of multis. Yes