Selections for Monday 6 January 2020

Update 11.15 am

Updated with best bets and speed map special.

Sorry, no further updates today after race 2.

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

Last week was a salutary lesson that a lack of information should mean a lack of betting.  To be fair, it’s a rule that I generally apply to C0 races simply because it can be hard to line up form with so many unknowns.

The ideal scenario is a runner with some box speed to avoid any trouble and evidence of having run some time.

Allegro Lanie (3) meets those criteria.  She was a little disappointing at Hatrick last start but previously placed at PN over 410m in good time.  She looked a little lost at Hatrick from the squeeze box but it looked like she would be more suited to running at PN.

A couple of runners have already won a race and are running out noms with the favourite Bigtime Miley (1) being one.  You can’t knock winning form and she drove hard to win in the last stride but the time wasn’t all that flash.

I’m happy to stick with Allegro Lanie while keeping in mind the comment about the vagaries of C0 races.

Not a bad effort for second, beating the short priced favourite.  The money came for Pluto so if you’d asked the universe, it may have given you the tip.  Money comfortably back.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

I made Bigtime Thor my selection overnight so his scratching opens this up.  There’s two other scratchings as well which changes the complexion of the race.

It’s another very even race although we have four chances out of seven to get out money back in bonus bets.

Bigtime Stella (1) and Bigtime Pearl (7) both won at Hatrick on Friday night and have to be in consideration although it would seem both are better at Hatrick.  Bigtime Jasmine (4) likewise won on Friday night but she has a much better record at Palmerston having won 8 times over the distance.

Bigtime Emjay got badly hampered on Friday night when downgrading but it’s always a possibility as he’s generally a slow starter.  The empty box is out in box 8 so the smaller field won’t help at least at the start.

In a very even race a dog like Idol Duke who has actually downgraded back to C3 has claims.  He has a relatively strong record over the distance here and while he’s downgraded to C3, he has the perfect downgrade form of three 4ths.

I don’t think Stella is perfectly drawn in 1 but she should have enough early speed to get ahead of the dogs on her immediate outside.  Pearl should also be on the early pace but if Stella can hold the rail she should be too strong at the finish.  I’d be putting the other runners into exotics.

We’ve had a bit of a frustrating run over the last month but it’s always nice when things go to script.  She didn’t have the best start but pushed along the rails and once she was on the early pace the $2.70 was pretty nice.  A much better run from Bigtime Sheer was the major surprise.

Bet of the Day – Race 12 Belmonts (2)

There looks to be two main chances in this race with Belmonts in box 2 and Bigtime Jonie box 7.  Jonie is undefeated in three starts but he’s run better times at Hatrick than his one start at PN where Belmonts has the edge.  I also think the box draw favours Belmonts who has a good chance of holding the rail while Jonie will have a little bit of speed on his outside in Bigtime Gwynn and potentially his inside with Barbarossa Boy.

I’d have both runners in a quaddie but with the draw and Jonie having just his second start in C1 I think there’s some nice value about Belmonts.

Couldn’t believe the money offered on Belmonts – you could have almost got $5 close to the jump and he still paid nearly $4 on the tote.  Jumped and held the rail and as we thought possible, Jonie had a bit of pressure from Gwynn and the 410m was just too far.  A great start to the New Year

Speed Map Special – Race 10 Cheeseball (1)

I think Cheeseball maps to get the best run he’ll every get in box 1.  He’s generally a slow runner but the race maps in his favour today.  Fare Dodger in box 2 will head right from the start.  If he picks the start, he has crossed the entire field in the past but he’s also drawn to cause a fair amount of problems for the rest of the field.

Either way, he should create a path for Cheeseball to work along the rail and if he can get the run, he has the closing sectionals to win this.

Melita Vella (3) has to rate well although the obvious concern is with the Dodger on her inside.  Bigtime Levi continues to run on and it’s not impossible that missing the start a fraction could be in his favour if he can drop under the Dodger at the start.

The favourite struggled in the strong win – Cheeseball did everything right by Levi was just too strong in the end.

Multi Maker

Bigtime Jackson looks a standout in race 3 and the money has come – opened at $1.75 and into $1.55 already

Nope – but beaten by the second rated runner