Selections for Monday 30 December 2019

Updated 2.30 suggested pick 6 (scroll down)

I’ve reviewed the first two races at Palmerston North which are the bonus back bet races.  I’ve also added the best bet of the day.  Will looks to see if we can find some value in the late quaddie or elsewhere.

First update 7.30PM Sunday.  I’ll update after scratchings and any recommendations based on prcies with the next update around 11.00 am.

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

Clearly, there’s no more presents left under the tree because this is no gift for punters.  There’s three first starters, three are having their first start over the 410m at Palmerston North while just one runner has had more than 2 starts over the distance.

The only runner with any real claims over the 410m based on exposed form is Young Dumb and Broke (quite appropriate for trying to make a quid out of this race!).  However, her best form has been closer in.

Could be a race where the tote will tell the story so definitely worth waiting to see what happens to the market.

The only runner with any stats to back it up is Young Dumb and Broke but I’d tread carefully.  He’s paying 3.10FF.

Tread carefully was the best advice – a tough race with so many unknowns.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

It doesn’t get any easier with another race with a lot of unknowns but being a C1 there’s a bit more form to digest.

Belmonts has the best single rating although that was over 305m at Hatrick.  Ran second to Big Time Gwyn two weeks over 457 so the shorter distance should suit.

On that basis Big Time Gwyn also needs to be considered especially as she’s been showing up early in 457m races.  No sure the wide draw will help but she does have box speed.

Cawbourne Moss downgrades and shows up at both ends of the sectionals.  Good enough to win 3 races over the 410m in the past.

To my mind, Paris End has had plenty of chances and has disappointed.  He’s had 5 attempts over the 410m and has yet to rate better than 20 which shouldn’t be enough to win this race.  Has ability but would prefer to back at Hatrick.

We had Penny Mohawk to upset last week in the C0 opener and she duly obliged.  It wasn’t the worst time but you would think that others have more claims.  She maps to get back and that won’t help.

Another very open race happy to go with the downgrader Cawbourne Moss @ $4.40FF.

Just missed the start.  Paris End again disappointed while Belmonts was top rated got to the lead and hung on.

Bet of the Day M3 Race 3 Zipping Luther (2)

I think there is a bit of value around Zipping Luther.  I expected him to be favourite but for understandable reasons, the Big Time dogs carry a lot of punters money.

Last start, Luther raced well out of class in a qualifying heat at Cambridge.  The start prior he was second and the three starts before that he won all three.  He rates on top and his sectionals tell us that if he can get a clean getaway from box 2 he should have these covered.

Currently $3.30 I have him rated at $2.70.

Another who missed the start and was never a winning chance.  Ran on OK for fourth but no money back this time.

Multi of The Day

Multi Zipping Luther race 3 with Bigtime Kiss race 7 – opened at $2.60 already into $2.20 – $10 will return $72.60

Pick 6

Bigtime Kiss looks like a potential anchor and Big Time Odette looks a good chance so a couple of legs where we can go short.  If we are live going into leg 5, we have a bit of cover and hopefully a bit of value.

R6 – 1, 3, 8
R7 – 3
R8 – 3, 7
R9 – 1, 2, 6
R10 – 5, 6, 7, 8
R11 – 1, 2, 5, 7, 8

$18 for 10%