Selections for Monday 23 December 2019

Updated 12 noon – next update by 1.30pm

A reminder racing gets underway a little earlier today with the first race at Addington at 11.35.  I’ve reviewed the first two races at Palmerston North which are the bonus back bet races.

First update 7.30PM Sunday.  I’ll update after scratchings with the next update around 11.00 am.

M9 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

A great race to start with … if you’re a bookie.  There’s a lack of form and a lack of performance in this race so that only thing that could entice a bet would be the prospect of money back.

In total, there have been 14 runs over the 410m by runners in this field and just two placings.

The dog that heads the predictor is Penny Mohawk who has one of those placings.  She is generally slow out although she has placed twice in box 4.  The speed maps suggests the early pace could be either side of her which in turn could create racing space for her.  However, the clear risk is with a slow start she could find problems.

At the other other of the spectrum, Idol Leo found the early lead in his first race at Hatrick over the 520m before running into trouble.  In this race, getting out in front could be the difference.

A tough race to start the day.

A nice start to the day with the map working out pretty much as predicted and Penny jumping a little better than expected (although not a complete surprise based on the sectionals).  If you were on Penny you would have been getting pretty excited at the home turn and she easily collared the pacemakers.  Helps puts some cash in the account for Boxing Day!

M9 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

Another tough race.  Big Time Jasmine has been running consistent races without winning.  She also hasn’t won in the green run but has a good record in box 5.  You have to think that as she moves down the classes again one day soon she is going to pick the jump and that should be in.

Big Time Thor is hit and miss.  While he heads left off the jump, he then tends to wander towards the middle of the track so he really needs to jump and have a lead to avoid trouble.

They look the best chances.

Big Time Thor – hit.  Jasmine miss.

Bet of the Day M9 Race 3 Morning Sun (1)

Morning Sun looks the standout bet here with the lack of genuine chances elsewhere.  The only other realistic chance appears to be Giraffe Club which is up in class.  They are the only two who have rated over 25 in their last 6 starts.  Morning Sun’s top rating for 410 is over 40 while Giraffe Club has yet to run better than 30 in three attempts.

The one draw should help with Morning Sun having enough early speed to lead and the dogs on his outside lacking early speed.

Rated price $2.20 currently $2.50FF

Value Bet of the Day M8 Race 8 Two Be Frank (6)

Two Be Frank has rated over 50 winning three of his last four races, all at Addington.  None of the rest of the field has rated over 50 in their entire careers while Frank has rated better than 60 twice.  There’s always a risk that a dog will miss the jump as happened three back but he maps to get a clear start and should be leading or on the leader’s outside at the end of the back straight.

Only a bad jump or bad luck should beat him.  $2.30 is short but on paper it looks pretty generous so long as he jumps.

The next best looks to be Raquel Allen who has the advantage of early speed.  She ran a career best sprint two starts back.

Rated price $2.00 currently $2.30FF.

To be fair, a pretty disappointing effort from the favourite.  Never in it and never showed any interest after a slow start either.

20 Unit Strategy

Nice and simple this week.

7 units Morning Sun at $2.50

8 units Two Be Frank at $2.30

5 units multi Morning Sun + Two Be Frank