Selections for Monday 16 December 2019

Update at 10.00

The first update covers the two bonus back races at Palmerston North.  The first race at PN is at 1.07.  A couple of even races to start with but we have the chance to get our money back – up to $30 on fixed odds bets only.

M9 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

There looks to be three or four main chances here – Mothers Touch (1), Big Time Dynasty (2), and Triple What (7).  Big Time Spot (6) is the favourite and has been in great form but she’s up in class and based on her ratings she will find this a lot tougher.

All the above have their merits but also a downside – Mother’s Touch is drawn upside down and would really prefer an outside draw, Dynasty like Spot has performed well without running outstanding times, Triple What has placed or better all three starts T&D again without running time while Nuclear Jewel has been boom or bust.  Outside of those, Tazia looks to be a little overs at $13 given she won over this distance and rated 48 back in July.

I’ve been following Mother’s Touch but the draw does worry.  I don’t think Dynasty or Spot will be strong enough with a couple of strong closers in the race.  So that leaves Triple What as the last dog standing but I think there’s potential for an upset.

Triple What currently $3.50FF.  Small saver on Mothers Touch.

Tough start to the day but it was a very open race.  Mothers Touch almost caused the bigger upset with all the favourites getting caught up in traffic problems at the start.

M9 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

This is a little easier from a bonus back point of view – just the seven runners and we only need to finish fourth or better.

Again, it looks like there’s a small group of likely candidates – Bigtime Jasmine (1), Bigtime Stella (10) and Idol Duke (6).  I expect Tuff Temptress (8) to show up in the early rush but she’s normally not strong enough to hold on.  Both Stella and the Duke will benefit from box 5 being vacant.

Stella won really well at Hatrick but she doesn’t have the same credentials at Palmerston North over the 410m.  She still looks like a genuine money back chance though.

While Jasmine doesn’t have a great record from the inside box, she does from box 2 and the speed map suggests she can get out quickly and drift a little wide without encountering too many issues.  If she can do that, she should be tough to run down.

Bigtime Jasmine currently $2.50FF.

We got the first three home but after the jump, it was all one way traffic.  Easy money back on Jasmine but not quite the optimal result.

Best Bets

A tough day of racing where there doesn’t seem to be a lot of value – but there are a lot of races!  Three runners at Palmerston North look good winning chances and all three have drawn well.

M9 R8 Boys Get Paid (2) just run down by kennel mate over longer distance at Hatrick currently $2FF

M9 R9 Thrilling Winter (1) second back after a break.  Has the inside draw and rates clearly on top with best rating for track and distance.  Currently $2.80FF

M3 R2 Emgrand Park (2) The class runner in the field and maps to lead from a cosy draw. Currently $1.90

I’m struggling to find any runners at Addington that are value – there’s a few that should win but I wouldn’t take the risk at the short odds that are offered.  I do like the look of M3 race 10 with the two standouts being Mr Blackjack (5) and Born Tasha (6).  One of those should be winning – Tasha has the benefit of box speed so looks a little overs.

20 Unit Strategy

We were all round it last week but that’s where having a decent bank helps for the long dark losing days!

Thrilling Winter 7 units @ $2.80 – pretty much to script 19.6 units returned

Boys Get Paid 5 units @ $2 – almost

Emgrand Park 5 units @ $1.90

3 units trifecta (25%) – M3 R10 Mr Black Jack/Born Tasha to run 1/2, fld for third – Mr Black Jack yes but born tasha was born late!