Updated by 3.05 pm – next update after M9 R12
With a $5 payout (yes, that was the quaddie payout!!) there’s no carry forward for the second quaddie. I’ll update after the end of M9.
I’ve added two bets and will update after the first quaddie at PN to wait to see if there is a carry forward.
I’ve had a look at the fields at Addington (M3) and while there’s, as always, a couple of runners who have some interest, nothing stands out as a serious bet. With a bumper day of racing, we need to make sure we don’t get carried away by trying to find a winner in every race which is the best way to find a lot of losers.
20 Unit Strategy
M5 R5 Big Time Seth – 8 units win @ $3.10
M9 R1 Giraffe Club – 4 units win @ $2.60 2nd but returns 4 units in bonus bets
M9 R7 Mother’s Touch 4 wins @ $3.70 Blew the start and never in the mix
M9 R7 Quinella Mother’s Touch with 1, 3, 5, and 6 – 4 units
Bet of the Day – M5 R5 Big Time Seth (2)
We have to wait until the last race of a very busy day to find the bet of the day.
Big Time Seth has been racing consistent races in C5 and he meets an average field with many of the “guns” having had a busy week or two at Hatrick. He’s won 5 from 13 over the distance and has won 3 from 6 from box 2. He’s clearly top rated and he should beat out Bigtime Levi in box 3 and almost certainly Ask King Jeff in 4. He’s run competitive sectionals at both ends and I think the $3.10 is pretty fair value.
Being a C4/5 race, there’s a few chances. Trophy Trophy is unknown but is at least worth making notes for the future. Bigtime Shadow (1) is more hit and miss than Ruiz but likes the inside alley and at her best is a decent chance and great value at $9. Fare Dodger is drawn to suit and will be less of a concern to the other runners. Bigtime Brody is another that the bookies have priced as being a winning chance.
I think the box draw puts Seth in the box seat – if he can get away and get some clear air which he should from box 2, he will be hard to run down. $3.10FF RP $2.90
Value Bet M9 R7 Mother’s Touch (7)
Mother’s Touch has been good to us in the past and I think she’s well placed to repeat. She’s a wide runner so the wide draw suits. There’s not a lot of early pace in this race and she maps to be on the early pace. If she can do that, then she’s run the closing sectionals to win.
The bookies have Big Time Trae as favouriteat $2.20. it has to be on reputation because she has a poor record over the 410m and indeed over her last 6 starts. Perhaps the main thing in her favour is that she maps to get forward early and could potentially hold the rail. That said, she’s most unlikely to tangle with Mother’s Touch who will be hanging out wide.
I think there is some value in the exotics here with Bigtime Jamie, Doomsday and Idol Duke all having claims at some value with Trae being so short.
Happy taking on the favourite here which makes Mother’s Touch a decent value bet. $3.70FF RP $2.70
The favourite was the lay of the day. Unfortunately, it was the exception for Mother’s Touch and she blew the start. Idol Duke made all and that was all she wrote.
M9 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer – Giraffe Club (1)
It’s a toss up between Giraffe Club (1) and Paris End (7). Paris End has the best overall ratings while Giraffe Club has the best ratings at PN. Giraffe Club has been racing like he’s been looking for an inside draw so he looks ideally drawn today. He’s had the edge over Paris End at PN with wider draws so the ace alley should seal the deal.
The bookies have Big Time Vegas as the favourite although the market is very compressed. It’s only his fourth start so clearly he must have shown something in trials to be so short.
Happy to stick with Giraffe Club – in a close finish, you’d hope he’ll stick his neck out!
He needed a pretty long neck to win that but a fair second. As we noted, he looked like he would have Paris End covered and did but it was hard to line up the form with Big Time Vegas. At least zero doubt about getting your money back!
M9 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer – Retail Mayhem (3)
I think Big Time Spot (7) can win this but I just don’t see any value at all in the $1.50. To be fair, he’s won 3 of his last four races but only once in his live has he rated over 21 when he rated 38 three back winning here over today’s distance. Interestingly, he hasn’t rated over 15 from an outside draw. So while he’s got form on the board, I don’t think he’s a $1.50 shot.
For the bonus back, we need a runner to finish in the first four and I’d always prefer to have a dog with some early speed to put us in the mix from the start. I think Retail Mayhem can get on the early pace and is likely to get to the rail. Any problems behind will help. She hasn’t been a strong finisher recently but the sectionals and ratings suggest this is a pretty weak race. I wouldn’t be surprised if she gets run down and Spot is one of the likely candidates but I’d like to think we’ll get a run for our money and our money back at worst.
Neither outcome was in doubt – Spot got a perfect run and that certainly helped. On the other hand, Retail Mayhem was never in doubt to return your hand earned so we get to go around again.