Selections for Monday 2 December 2019

Update at 3PM M3 second quaddie starts race 7

A decent carryforward into the second quaddie.  This is a wide quaddie but I’m a little nervous about the two C0 races – always the chance of an upset.

There’s bonus money back offers on races 1 and 2 so we’ll have a close look at those two races.  With 16 races, it gives the bookies plenty of chances to get your money so we’ll try and find the best value races to have a crack at.

20 unit strategy

One thing that I haven’t done previously is provide an investment strategy or approach for the day.  Apart from the good punting sense to try and maximise your return, it’s a clear way to provide a measurable indicator of success or not.

M3 R2 $3 win Big Time Spot @ $2.80, $2 win Retail Mayhem @ $8 (race spend 5 units) 0 units returned

M3 R7 Little Scamp $2W/$3P $8.00/$2.25 plus $1Q boxed quinella 1,5,8 (3 units spend, race 8 units) 6.75 units returned

M9 R3 My Khloe $7 win @ $2.80 (7 units) second 0 units

A bit disappointing but two seconds and a concession quinella to boot!

Best Bet – M9 R3 My Khloe (1)

I think the box draw is the key to this race.  Khloe has shown plenty of early speed in her racing and has won from box 1.  She’s placed her only start over the track and distance and the time was close to the best of this field.  The key for me is Flying Huey who is drawn in box 2 – while he’s not a a demo scouter, he definitely prefers a bit of air and will drift outwards which should allow Khloe to hold the rail.  She has run competitive 520m races at Addington so the distance is not a concern.

Big Time Vince (6) and Meandering (7) have both been in good form in recent weeks but they may have to content with Huey heading towards the middle of the track.  Huey is not the worst in this either and could help spice up the exotics.

I think Khloe has the early speed to hold the rail with Huey likely to leave a decent gap on his inside and from their Khloe should be hard to run down.

Fair value at $2.80FF.

The exotics were easily found by Huey always had the jump on them.

Value Runner – M3 R7 Little Scamp (8)

I think there’s three decent winning chances in this race – Bigtime Caleb (1), Bigtime Thor (5) and Little Scamp (8).

Caleb has come up favourite with the advantage of the inside box.  He’s a consistent runner and is definitely in the mix but in 9 attempts has won just once over the distance.

Thor is a hit or miss but at his best is right in this.

The value runner for me is Little Scamp who downgrades after finding C4 just too tough.  The question will be whether her confidence has been dented because the sectionals tell us she has the early speed to be with the leaders and she’s run the times to go on with it.

I think she’s great each way value at $8FF and needs to be included in exotics.

Nice each way money – just missed the start a bit but showed good speed to go around the outside but wasn’t able to kick on.  We get a collect for third tho.

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer – Thrilling Dora (4)

There looks to be be a couple of main chances, at least with exposed form.

Paris  End (1) rated well enough first start from box 1 so the draw looks ideal today.  Has been running like the 410 will suit but times since the first start haven’t been too convincing.

On the other hand, Thrilling Dora (4) won over 375m at Cambridge after finding the 457 a little too long.  The only concern is the box draw of 4 but she looks like she has the early speed to be on the early pace.  It is her first start at Palmerston North too.

For a last start winner, Thrilling Dora looks good value at $2.30 especially with the money back offer.

Not the best start to the day – always hard to live up form in maiden races.  That said, once Dora missed the start, all she had in front of her was some exploring.  The red rug hung on for fourth but was never a winning chance but at least you got your money back.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

It’s a pretty weak C1 race to be fair.  Only 3 of the runners have won over the track and distance.

Big Time Spot has won both his last two maiden times but while he’s been consistent, he hasn’t yet run an outstanding times.  Having said that, Spot does have the best rating over the last 6 starts rating 38 with his last start win last week.  A repeat of that should be enough today.  He has paid a dividend in his 4 starts over the 410 and maps to be on pace.

The bookies also like is Waitohi who is a different candidate entirely.  He’s yet to have run over the 410m and is coming back after a spell of three months.  He’s more a distance dog than a short course runner so it’s a reflection of the calibre of the field he’s as short as he is.

The other runner work a look is Retail Mayhem in box 1.  The sectionals say she should be up on the early speed, especially with Waitohi on her outside.   She will find this a lot easier than her recent races and is one of the runners to have won over the 410m.  Yet to have won from boxes 1 or 2 after plenty of attempts but has placed 16 out of 22 starts from the inside two boxes.

It’s the type of race you’d like to have some cover in.  Spot looks like the best placed runner but I think there’s definitely value around Retail Mayhem with the inside draw.

Didn’t quite work out the way we thought with the 6 dog getting a flier.  A rough race and the time showed.  Spot got money back while Retail Mayhem ended up getting the worst of the racing luck.