Selections for Monday 25 November 2019

Update 2.15 M3 second quaddie carryforward

There’s a couple of potential anchors with Annie in r8 and Awesome quality in race 10.

One option is to go short with those two and wider in the other legs.  With only 6 runners in the third leg plus the fact that I think Little Scamp is worth putting in and it’s the outside, then leg 3 looks like a field job.  So a couple of options:

$10 for 27%

R7 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

R8 2 ouch squeezed and fell but never a $2 after the start

R9 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8

R10 5

$21.60 for 10%

R7 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

R8 2, 5, 7, 8

R9 1, 2, 4

R10 2, 5, 7

Once again, the TAB is running the Bonus Back offers on race 1 and race 2 so I’ve focussed on those two races. I’ve added my analysis for races 1 & 2 as the prices can come in – I’ll provide the next update by noon.

There’s two place 6 and 4 quaddies today plus a pick 6.  So the bookies have plenty of chances to get their money back!  Our aim is to focus on the races where we have an edge or we can find some value … or both.

Best Bet – M3 R10 Awesome Quality (5)

Experience (or as i call it, pain) has drilled in me the importance of box speed so I’m generally not a fan of dogs that map to get back.  While Awesome Quality does map to get back, he has run an opening sectional good enough to be on the pace.  And he only needs to be within a reasonable distance of the leaders to use his strong closing sectional to run them down.

It’s not the strongest C5 race we’ll see and to be fair, there’s not an imposing amount of early speed either which should suit Awesome Quality.  The biggest concern is that Fare Dodger will run out from box 2 but is not unreasonable to see a scenario where the Dodger will jump and run wide allowing Awesome Quality to cross on the inside.  His worst run in his last 6 starts he rated 46 and that would still be good enough to beat most of these.

The bookies have him at $2.40 which I think is a fraction overs but takes into consideration the early speed factor.

Value Runner – M9 R10 Tommy the Jett (2)

We’re going to have to wait until the last race of the day for the value runner of the day but hopefully it will be worth it.

Tommy the Jett is down in class – his last 2 races have been against combined C4/C5 while today he faces C3/C4.  In his last 6 starts he’s only drawn inside box 5 twice and both times he’s placed, including a C4/C5 race.

Based on his ratings, he looks like a $4 chance (compared to how the bookies have priced the market) so the $12 is pretty generous.

Seth in box 3 is not a wide runner but nor does is he a hard railer so there Tommy should have a chance to push up.  Big League Diva has a reasonable record from box one but there’s more than a suspicion that she’s more comfortable out wider.  So there is a risk that Tommy could get caught between Seth and the Diva but that assumes Diva gets away well and that hasn’t always been the case.

I would definitely have Tommy in multi leg bets and exotics and I think at $12FF and $2.80FP is excellent value and worth a gold coin each way.

 

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

A tough race to analyse with C0 runners so not a lot of form and especially so at Palmerston North  over the 410m.  Only 7  runners so we have a better than 50% chance of getting our money back.

The two top chances are Big Time Spot (2) and Paris End (4).  Spot is the odd one out as she’s already won a race at Whanganui over the 305m.  Interestingly, she’s only once in 8 starts had a draw inside 4 where she ran 3rd over 457m here at Palmy so she does have a better draw today.  She looks the likely leader too.  Her last start was also her best rating so perhaps she’s getting a little stronger – she needed to be tougher to win last start.

Paris End has had two starts for two places.  He jumped ok from box 1 but from box 4 was a worse than midfield so that is at least a sight concern.  On the basis of his best run he could win this.

A race that I would otherwise avoid as there isn’t a lot of value but a lot of risk.  You would think either of the two above should be capable of running top 4 at worst.  I’m going to give the edge to Big Time Spot who has three starts for three places over the 410m, maps to lead, and won last start.

Yes jumped run and daylight second.  Money back with no dramas whatsover.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

I made Mother’s Touch my bet of the day last week (the abandoned meeting) and I think she is still the top pick in race 2 today.  The sectionals tell us she should be on pace and likely lead plus she has a couple of the best closing sectionals.  Baxter is generally slow off the lids and could find himself a bit crowded if slow out of box 2.  The other favourite Zipping Luther (1) hasn’t shown much form recently so Mother’s Touch looks the clear selection based on sectionals and ratings – at $4.20FF I would think that’s a bit of value too as I rate her at $2.80.

Great money although her tendency to go via Foxton made it interesting in the end.  A good start to the day.