Selections for Monday 18 November 2019

Update.  Good news and bad news.  I collected on my best bet and the two roughies also paid out.  Great day!  Bad news – races abandoned and all bets refunded.  Back again next week.

Once again, the TAB is running the Bonus Back offers on race 1 and race 2 so I’ve focussed on those two races. I’ll provide an update after race 5 – if there’s a carry forward to the second quaddie, I’ll provide a suggested quaddie otherwise we’ll have a crack at the place 6.  We managed to get a small profit on the late quaddie last week so it worked in our favour.

There will be a lot of interest in Race 9 with Boys Get Paid running around.  Remarkable to think in four starts, he’s never offered more than $1.25!

 

Bet of the Day – M3 Race 1 Mother’s Touch (6)

Mother’s Touch is also in one of the Bonus Back Offer races – see the analysis below.

Big Value Blowouts

Over half the card has races where the favourite is running around at evens or worse.

At the other end of the spectrum, there’s a couple of runners that look on paper overs – it doesn’t mean that they will win or even place of course but the price of offer is a lot more than what the ratings tell us they should be paying.  Both are recently up in class but both have run times that gives them a chance of placing at good money.  Worth a gold coin if you like backing the roughies and you’re happy to live .

Race 5 – Little Scamp – put simply one of those dogs that has to jump to be in the race but the sectionals tell us that she can compete – she actually has two of the top 4 opening sectionals.  On top of that she has three of the top closing sectionals.  She will need luck from the draw and seems to lose interest quickly if things don’t pan out but there will be dogs with lot worse chances running around today paying $31FF.  RP $10

Race 12 – Tommy The Jett – another dog up in class and in a very even race – the favourites are currently at $4.  Tommy actually rates on top in the Predictor and has two of the best 10 closing sectionals.  Again, will need luck from the draw but must have at least a statistical chance of winning which means he should be paying around $8 to win rather than $14.

Long shots both so very small units ew

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

While the TAB have Mother’s Touch (6) as favourite, I think there’s still a bit of value in $3FF.  Her recent racing has been at Hatrick and she is downgrading after reasonable efforts there – she’s had a tendency to get near the lead and then not see out the middle distance so the shorter race is ideal and her TD record (9 runs, two wins, 5 places) should give us confidence that she should be able to run fourth or better and get our money back at worse!

She’s can take a little while to work into a race although generally by the end of the back straight she’s competitive and she does use up a lot of ground.  That said, the wider draw wont be a  disadvantage and she shouldn’t have any pressure from her outside.  The sectionals tell us that she just needs to be thereabouts once the field settles and her closing sectionals should see her through.

There’s a few here who have had plenty of opportunities but haven’t really taken their chances.  Cawbourne Moss has been running better at Hatrick while Here’s Hemi is another who has had plenty of chances recently.  He has a poor record from box 1.  At the other extreme, Dangerous Di is two from two but hasn’t run any time yet.  She will need to run you would think she will need to find a couple of lengths to be competitive and I’m not 100% convinced that the inside draws suit.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

Melita Vella was close to the lay of the day last week and duly ran a costly second running around at $1.70.  She did win at Hatrick in a reasonable time midweek.  The question is whether that was because of natural improvement which will see her run a better time today or simply that she preferred the extra distance and/or course.  To be fair, she had a really tough run from box 8 and couldn’t get across and endured a pretty bumpy ride.  The concern of course is that the same will happen today from the same draw.

Elsa Blueblood does look like it will be on pace early from box 7 and that won’t help Melita Vella.  However, Elsa is not the strongest dog and there isn’t a lot of early pace otherwise so it looks like a case of only bad luck beats her. Which it did last week.

So the options seem a little limited.  Melita Vella does look the standout in a very average C1 field (she is of course C2 after her win last week) so you can take the shorts with the expectation that you should expect to see your money back at worse.  The next best option – and the bookies agree – is Three Amigos but that’s more a reflection of the lack of exposed form elsewhere.

You would like to think that the two make up the quinella but famous last words!  If you are keen on minimising risk, then Melita Vella should return you your money at worst and potentially give you a lot more than the bank will for the use of your money.  If you’re happier to take the risk, then Three Amigos is offering more but you are likely relying on the favourite finding trouble again.

A funny race where there’s not a lot of options but not necessarily a lot of value either.  Just be happy to get your money back :-)

Multi Makers

There’s four or 5 dogs running around today offering $2 or less.  While you can see each of them winning, in each case there’s at least one factor that worries – either they are running over a distance for the first time or their main competitor doesn’t have a lot of exposed form.  I’d prefer to watch and wait for better value.

Place 6/Quaddie

I’ll wait until I see if there is a carry forward from the early quaddie before targetting either the place 6 or the late quaddie.  I’ll post an update around 4.15.

Place 6

If you didn’t read my post on place 6 a few weeks ago, and if you haven’t played place 6 before, it’s worth a quick read.