Selections for Monday 11 November 2019

Updated at 4.15 with recommended late quaddie (scroll down).

The TAB is running the Bonus Back offers on race 1 and race 2 so I’ve focussed on those two races. I’ll provide an update after race 5 – if there’s a carry forward to the second quaddie, I’ll provide a suggested quaddie otherwise we’ll have a crack at the place 6.

Bet of the Day – M3 R6 Bigtime Banjo (8)

Neil Davis has a phrase that is worth repeating before each day of racing – most races are lotteries and are bookies’ benefits.  So it’s worth picking and choosing our races to where we think there’s one or two decent changes.

Bigtime Banjo loves the outside draws and maps to be on the early speed – he has 3 of the top 4 opening sectionals.  He’s not as strong in the closing sectional but if he gets the jump, they will have to run him down.

The best of the rest all look like they will be running on but lack early speed.  The main exception is Bigtime Jasmine (7) but her best ratings have been from closer in.

My second selection in this is Little Scamp (2).  She’s paying double figures but has the advantage of an inside draw with no speed around her.  Her sectionals show that at her best with a clear run, she is in the mix and I think she is overs at $16FF.

Banjo looks the logical best selection but I would still have a little something on Little Scamp and include in exotics.  The two dogs rate 1-2 and map to be 1-2 in the running.  One play that can be quite fruitful is to back both to run 1-2 in the trifecta or first 4 and the field for the other placings.  $6 will give you 50% of the trifecta and 10% of first4.

Never in doubt …

Value Runner – M3 R12 Bigtime Tank (2)

The Racing Series graduation final looks to be another great race.  With the prize money attracting strong interest in the heats, the final is guaranteed to be competitive.

So early speed and box drawer could be vital and the dog I think has the best chance of leading is Bigtime Tank.  He has 4 of the top 10 opening sectionals and maps to lead from box 2.  Four starts back he was third at the end of the straight in a C4/5 race from an inferior draw.

It’s definitely an open race but i think Tank could be a speed map special worth a small investment.

Almost got to the front but couldn’t quite hold the rail.  That said, the winner was never going to be caught up in any of the “negotiations” on its inside.  Money came for the Tank too – opening around $5 and closed $3.80.

M3 Race 1 – Bonus Back Offer

As I’ve mentioned before, I prefer to leave C0 races alone mainly due to the lack of consistent form patterns.  However, with the Bonus Back we only need to run fourth to get out money back.

In any race, box speed is gold but with dogs still learning the game, the C0 can be lotteries.  Dangerous Di showed plenty of after burn in her first up win at Palmerston North – she wasn’t the quickest into stride but was in front by the end of the back straight.  I think she could have got there earlier but she wanted to go hard left from box 3.  So the inside alley should be ideal. She does wander a little away from the rail later and we don’t know how she’ll finish the race but she looks a fair bet to be on the pace at the end of the back straight and that could be the winning of the race.

Second favourite Big Time Spot is winless in four attempts at Palmerston North and while placed in both races over 410, just simply hasn’t run any time.  Ariana Sunset has been placed 4 from 6 starts so has to be a chance to run a place at least.  Three of the other runners are yet to run over the 410 so that makes analysis difficult as well.  However, the only dog to have rated higher than 23 in any race is Dangerous Di who rated 38 on debut.

Dangerous Di with the draw and the early burn looks the best option here and the $2.50FF isn’t bad value at all.

Di had to work for it and was headed by Spot at the end of the back straight but it pretty much went to script including Di floating out on the track.  Spot was just a little weak at the end but didn’t have any excuses either.  Interestingly, the book was heavily in favour of Di but the tote was the other and Di ended up paying $3.10 to win on the tote.

M3 Race 2 – Bonus Back Offer

Another tough race to analyse – three of the runners are having their first run over the 410m at Palmerston North while three others have run twice or less.

Melita Vella (8) is very short at $1.65FF, especially so given that she missed the start in her NZ debut.  She still won hence the bookies not wanting to risk her.  It’s the type of race where she could miss away and still win however it’s at least a minor flag as is the fact that she has just 1 place from 3 races outside box 2.

Big Time May (2) looks the likely early leader but she isn’t the strongest dog and her times have been underwhelming thus far.  I suspect she would prefer a wider draw.

I think there’s some value around Summer Glee (7).  She is hit and miss (especially so at Hatrick) but she did lead up a 475 race here recently before being run down.  She has a surprisingly good record from box 7 and the sectionals tell us she has the early speed to get on the pace.  At $12FF, she’s paying way over what the ratings tell us she should pay so worth a nibble.

Funny old race which highlighted the challenge of trying to line up dogs without a lot of exposed form.  Inspired support for Double What delivered on the day.  While Melita Vella was a live chance, I think it was fair to say she was never a $1.45 chance.  Summer Glee never looked like winning but it was a comfortable fourth for money back.

Multi Makers

No multi makers today – I don’t think there’s any standout runners especially at the prices offered.

Late Quaddie

With a carry forward of over $1200, there’s obvious value in having a crack at the quaddie.  It’s likely to get over $4K so even a small percentage could be a decent collect.

A couple of legs are pretty open so we’ll go wide and hope for some value along the way.  In the first leg, I think the two favourites are far too short so need to have a bit over cover.

300 combos – $30 for 10% or $15 for 5%

R9 1, 2, 3, 4, 8

R10 1, 2, 4, 7, 8

R11 2, 3, 4, 7

R12 1, 2, 7

A small profit with favourites dominating the early legs.

Place 6

If you didn’t read my post on place 6 a few weeks ago, and if you haven’t played place 6 before, it’s worth a quick read.