Updated at 3.15 with suggested place 6 – scroll down.
The last couple of weeks have been a little frustrating although we have been close.
My bet of the day has disappointed us (Bigtime Fred) two weeks in a row although I’ve made the point a number of times that it’s worth following beaten selections. In dog racing, runners will almost certainly go around again in similar class or even easier classes so a bit of bad luck can hide a strong potential performer. So it proved with Fred who won at Wanganui last week and paid a ridiculous $8.
Once again we have some even racing at Palmerston. There’s a couple of dogs who should be winning but aren’t great value. With all the racing around at this time of the year, try and keep your powder dry so that when you find a winner you have plenty in the account!
Again, I’m going to put my own effort into the Place 6 – there looks one or two favourites who I think could be risked which could inflate the payout.
Note that there’s Bonus Back offers on race 1 and race 2 – and I think there’s a decent chance in race 1!
Bet of the Day – M3 Race 1 Here’s Hemi (7)
There’s a few runners in this field who look destined for an extended stay in C1. A decent few have had more than a handful of starts over the 410 and only Here’s Hemi has rated 40 or better. Half the field haven’t rated above 20 in their last 6 starts.
Here’s Hemi is back in distance but his last start over 410m was in C2/3 class and he ran 4th while the 2 previous starts over 410m he rated over 40 in both races and won one and was placed in the other in C2.
The only flag is that he’s not the fastest beginner but apart from Rusty in box 1 there’s no early speed. While Rusty will lead he’s 0 from 10 over the course and distance and he would need the Springboks backrow to take out the rest of the field to win.
I think there’s a little bit of value around Here’s Hemi – currently paying $3FF. For exotics, I think Zipping Romeo (9) is a runner that could add some value.
Here’s Hemi had his chance but just took too long to get going. As Roso noted, the speed map favoured Big Time May but I thought Hemi had jumped well enought to threaten. Safe bet for money back offer though minor consolation.
Race 2 Bonus Back Offer
One the surface, Thrilling Peta is the deserved favourite but there’s a couple of flags that suggest that the $1.70 is not value. First, she’s not the quickest away but that may be more exposed in higher class fields than this. She’s got the ability to be on the pace but doesn’t look like she has blistering early speed. Linked to that, it’s her first run at Palmerston North and that has to add a least a little doubt. Having said all of that, she does look a decent chance to run at least top 4 so get your money back.
Apart from Peta, it looks an intriguing race. Bigtime Honey had been looking like a perennial bridesmaid but has won two of her last 5 starts and rated a very strong 60 on Friday at Hatrick. Big Time Nash (8) was another runner who seemed to have been a bit limited until re rated 57 beating Boys Get Paid a month ago.
With Peta paying less than money back, logic suggests that there’s better value around the other two runners, both of whom have the early speed to lead. I’m not convinced that Punch on Ruby will appreciate box 2 and she has shown a tendency to push out when crowded. That is another potential issue for Peta and perhaps gives Honey the edge in a race i think is more open than the book says.
Once Peta got away well, the rest of the analysis went out the door. There three dogs that dominated the ratings dominated the race. Again, there was never any danger with the money back offer.
There’s a couple of races where I think the favourites are a lot shorter than they should be which potentially creates an opportunity for some value elsewhere.
One of those days – in two of the three races, things panned out as predicted but the favaourites managed to overcome the risks.
Race 2 – as noted above, I think there’s some potential value around Bigtime Honey and Big Time Nash with a couple of flags around the favourite Thrilling Peta.
Race 7 – Broke Bad is definitely the strongest dog in the race but he’s not the quickest off the lids plus he’s not comfortable on the inside and is likely to push out. Either of these factors mean the $1.70 is too short for me although i think he’s needed in place 6 given his strong finishes.
Race 9 – Thrilling Stomp (1) is very short at $2FF but doesnt rate as strong as that price would suggest. Further, I’m not convinced box 1 is his preferred alley. Some value around the 6 and 8 and potential for a boilover.
No multi makers today – I don’t think there’s any standout runners especially at the prices offered.
If you didn’t read my post on place 6 a few weeks ago, and if you haven’t played place 6 before, it’s worth a quick read.
I’ve played against a couple of favourites throughout the place 6 – a small investment for a potentially decent payout. As a digression, it would be great if the TAB could offer an indirect way to lay a favourite eg the favourite vs the field option.
Just $15 for 5%
R7 1, 5 – you had to hold your breath with the 1 dog but he managed to get out of any danger. Good result for our place 6 with both runners placing giving us 10% after the first
R8 5, 8 – two from two. 20% now.
R9 6, 8 – the upset was looking on the cards but the red rug managed to get and go right round the lot
R10 2, 4, 6 – the joy of place 6 – all going well until it’s not!
R11 1, 4, 7
R12 1, 2, 5, 6