A frustrating day last week with our bet of the day missing the jump. Likewise, out in the first leg of the place 6 which when I reviewed my selections was something I could have done a lot better, especially given the mammoth payout!
Still, at least with racing we can always go around again.
Just the 12 races and once again some very open races along with a couple of races with a short priced favourite so not a lot of value. I’ll most likely focus on the place 6 or late quaddie if there is a carry forward.
Bet of the Day – M9 Bigtime Fred (6)
I’m going to go again with Bigtime Fred as my bet of the day with one caveat. Again, it looks like a race in 2 with Bigtime Fred and Brad Broke (1) the two standouts. The only other realistic chance appears to be Tuff Mr Tee (4). It’s hard to rate the Aussie import Ophira Bale (5) based on the two runs so far.
Fred has the best opening sectionals – even if he did bomb the start last week. Brad has improved his starting manners and has only had one run from inside 3. Interestingly, Fred has a better closing sectional than Brad’s best but the two dominate the sectionals.
Fred is paying great each way money at $6FF and $1.90FP. Bookies are offering $2.50 on Brad to win. It’s hard to separate the two on ratings but Fred is clearly offering better value so he gets the nod but I will cover Fred as well and work around these two selections in multis, quaddies etc.
I suggest Fred is just waiting for when I don’t label him! Disappointing and while Brad ran on he was never a winning chance today. Just beaten by a better dog on the day.
Money Bonus Back
The TAB is offering money back bonus bets on races 1 and 2 so they are worth looking at. Your selection only needs to run in the first four – with the dogs, that tends to put the onus for the bonus on box speed.
Race 1 – a challenging race to say the least with hardly any form among the lot of them. Clearly, Criminal Justice brings winning form into the race but the time wasn’t sensational and it’s over 100m further today after the sprint at Hatrick. Ariana Sunset looks to be one of the early leaders but would need some problems behind her to hang on but that’s not impossible. The one I like for a bit of value is Bigtime Ricky – he should handle box 8 based on his past runs in the pink and as we’ve seen in the past there’s potential for all sorts of drams in these races so he could well avoid that. He shows up in the ratings too albeit in a race lacking any real formlines. That said, I think he’s a fair chance of running at least 4th and the $7.50 is appealling.
The 8 just didn’t quite hold on for 4th bombed in the last few strides but Ariana Sunset did.
Race 2 – from one end of the spectrum to the other. This does look like a one dog race but there’s not a lot of value in $1.50 for Big Time Amie (7). With the bonus back, you could argue that only really bad luck would prevent her from running in the top 4 so it’s worth the risk. Big Time May (8) will appreciate the wider draw but has yet to run time at Palmerston North but has won 1 race from 4 and placed twice. She could also get a drag into the race with Amie boxed inside. Big Time Kenny (3) is in a similar boat in terms of his record but again hasn’t run any time. Big Time Rusty (1) has some early pace and has the advantage of box 1. In a rough run race, that could be helpful in at least ensuring a top 4 finish.
Easy win for the favourite … so long as you ignored the 409m and focussed on the last stride where her lip got up!
Race 1 – As above, Big Time Amie looks a strong chance but I’m always happier to have an inside draw to take trouble out of the equation. Could also argue that the $1.50 is no long value. Tough way to make $1.50 and she had to be strong to get up after being pushed wide at the turn.
Race 8 – Boys Get Paid at $1.50 is the best value we’ve had yet but there has to be a question mark at least around the start given his inexperience. Again, $1.50 is not great value expect if he jumps well he has to be a great chance.
Race 10 – Emgrand Rose (1) what an omen bet! Has drawn one, rates on top and when he wins he tends to jump and run so he does look like worth putting into multis.
If you didn’t read my post on place 6 a few weeks ago, and if you haven’t played place 6 before, it’s worth a quick read.
Suggested place 6 – one way to play. I’m always reluctant to anchor one runner as the value generally comes if favourites get beaten. However, with the late scratching in race 8 you’d have to say Boys Get Paid is a fair anchor and likewise the same with Emgrand Rose. So hopefully a bit of value can be found in other legs.
$20 for 27%
1. Emgrand Rose
2. Big Time Trae