Update at 12.45 – all races

There’s only one domestic meeting on Tuesday with the dogs at Forbury Park so as a bonus, we’re providing free ratings!

Also, it’s a reminder that you can get sectionals for all races at Forbury Park – FREE – at sectionals.co.nz.

Summary

An enjoyable day and if you’ve had a look at the sectionals site, you can see that we have a lot of data to look at these days.  Looking at the results, about a third went to plan, a third we knew to avoid and a third went somewhere else entirely.  That has the makings of a good day but unfortunately for whatever reason the races i felt most confident about were the ones that turned to custard.  To be fair, i think Forbury Park will always be a challenge simply because the dogs race there less frequently than other venues such as Addington or Hatrick in the CD.

I’ll review my selections and approach but will look at repeating the exercise later in a month or two.

David

Best Bets (races 1-10)

Also note there is Bonus Back on races 1 + 2.

Race 8 – Know Crime (1) RP $2.50 $3FF

Race 12 – Know Denying (1) RP $1.90 $2.10FF 2nd

Value Bet

Race 10 – Homebush Sawyer (1) RP $3.10 $4.00FF 2nd

Race 11 – Magic Jess Lass (1) RP $2.50 $3.00FF

Key Statistics

One of the links for each race includes statistics for the course and distance.  It’s a really useful way of helping to understand what you should be looking for.

At Forbury Park, the sprint distance is 310m.  A whopping 62% of winners will lead at the end of the back straight while the winner will be first or second by the first turn in over 84% of races.  So clearly box speed is really important for the Forbury Park sprints.  Box 1 on 18% is the most successful followed by boxes 2 and 8 on 14% – so nearly half the winners will come from those three boxes.  It’s not difficult to see the link association with the in run position statistic as those boxes are likely to get the cleanest run.

For the middle distance races, the distance is 545m so 25m further than the middle distance at Addington.  It’s the longest of the three middle distances in the South Island and that last 25m can expose some dogs who can’t quite see the distance out.  Not surprisingly, there is less of a bias to the leader but still 44% of winners will lead at the winning post the first time around.  That increases to 66% for the first two runners while just 13% of winners will be 5th or worse with a lap to go.  Interestingly, box 1 has a real advantage with 22% of winners in the red rug.  The next most successful boxes are 2,3 and 8 with the other four boxes accounting for just 40% of winners.  So a dog that is drawn well (1 or 2) with clearly established box speed is what we are looking for.

Analysis

Race 1

I tend to steer clear of C0 races for two reasons.  First, there is a lot less data to analyse and establish any clear patterns.  Second, the inexperienced dogs means that the racing can be less clean and anything can happen!  As you will see, only one dog has had more than 2 starts at the track.  One dog who hasn’t raced at Forbury park looks the likely leader – Horse Range Gold (and he is in the Gold rug too!).  The early speed should help ensure a top 4 placing.

Favourites had this covered – Horse Range Gold just couldn’t quite cross otherwise the result could have been flipped but easy money back.  First two out first two home.

Race 2

Another C0 with similar comments to race 2.  The best credentialled dog is Oakmont (7) but again the dog is having its first start at Forbury Park.  Homebush Caesar (2) has the draw and has also placed only start at Forbury.  For a bit of value, Citizen Zagreb (4) is another who could be on pace and has the best adjusted time at Forbury although placed only 1 from 4 starts.  He could be at false odds as he was leading coming into the home straight when run off by a wayward runner no doubt enjoying a break in the naughty corner.

Pretty much as scripted – we got a nice run from the 4 and the trifecta was easily found.

Race 3

A race to watch – bookies can’t find anything shorter than 3.60FF either.  The three outside boxes have the early pace along with the red rug. Again hard to get a gauge on the field with half the field having two starts or less at Forbury Park.  There’s a couple of ways you can assess the form – best ratings, track performance – and two who feature in both are the 6 and 7.

A great race – to watch!  7 ran well but the winner 4 was a huge run from well back.  Didn’t find the winner but the data suggested it was a watch race and that proved to be correct.

Race 4

Seve (4) is two from two but in my view no value so potentially we can get some value elsewhere.  Seve has yet to race at Forbury so another unknown.  Know Leave (1) just needs to make a decent start as he has the strong closing sectionals here and has won on the track.  As we noted above, the 1 box can be a real advantage over the 545m.  The dogs in 2 and 3 are potentially the early leaders so there could be room in behind for Know Leave.

Not always things go to script but the script was spot on.  The extra 25m told as did the fact that Know Leave managed to get away cleanly and was able to use his strong closing sectional to full effect.  Great money too.

Race 5

The top two rated in this race – Know Debt and Know Baby – have one race at Forbury between them.  They also have the likely early pace.  Andrea Said (1) maps to get back so will be an interesting test of the early speed rule unless she get get lucky.

An open race but the sectionals showed Cool Beans was in the mix while it also highlighted that Andrea Said would be slow out.  The two favourites were never a winning chance.

Race 6

An interesting race given the statistics at Forbury.  Based on the sectionals, the early pace should come from Citizen Aguero (1) and Punch On Jessie (9 racing out of box 3).  The favourite is King Toliman (4) who has been racing well at Addington but has a squeeze box and is up in class. Homebush Finn has the best tracking rating but is a little hit and a lot miss – however, he does have a strong closing sectional.

Another good result – the sectionals and ratings working well together.  The favourite missed a placing but we had the three to place clearly marked with the box speed the telling factor.

Race 7

Our Anna maps to lead but has had just the one run at Forbury.  Also rates on top but based on performances elsewhere.  The best rating at Forbury is held by Kia Tere who also has the inside alley.  Hasn’t been racing at the top of his form but does like the red rug.  The flag is that in 17 attempts at Forbury has yet to salute the judge.

If you were prepared to look a little deeper, the ratings and sectionals showed that there were three or four dogs likely to feature and they did.  Once again, we saw dogs with good middle distance form elsewhere struggling over the last 20 metres or so.  The winner (6) had proven form over the 545m with the second best adjusted time.

Race 8

I like Know Crime (1) in this race.  He has drawn the favoured inside box and looks to have enough speed to keep the rails.  He has four runs at Forbury for a win and two places and has the best rating on the track.  The main danger is drawn outwide with Opawa Roy in box 8.  Similar stats to Know Crime but Know Crime has the edge on past performance and based on our stats, the added advantage of the inside draw.  If he jumps, he should give a decent sight and be hard to run down.

Funny our best bet has turned out to be our worst bet!  Some really good results in previous races but that was an extremely disappointing run.  No excuses.

Race 9

As we’ve seen, with Forbury only racing every fortnight, it can be hard to line up the formlines.  Another race where the top rated dog hasn’t raced at Forbury Park but you’d have to think Opawa Oscar has the measure of this field.  Slight concern about the jump but he has a better draw today.  Dusty’s Ink rates well but his best performances have been from the inside boxes.  Mitcham Trudy (1) has the red rug and should make the most of it but was run down last week from a similar draw.  Has rated well at Forbury in the past too.  Would be more bullish about Mitcham Trudy if she’d run out her last race a little stronger.

Another to script with perhaps the factor that made it easier to analyse was the low confidence with Dusty’s Ink from box 8 – all its best form was from inside draws. Likewise, Mitcham Trudy hadn’t really made the most of recent inside draws.  However, as we’ve seen it’s always problematic to extrapolate form from elsewhere to Forbury Park so no high confidence with Oscar. 

Race 10

An interesting race with the two favourites drawn on the inside and paying at least $4.  I like Homebush Sawyer (1) for a couple of reasons.  he’s won from the inside and and has the best rating on the course.  I suspect he’s a little happier a little away from the inside but so two does the dog in box 2 who will likely want to push wider.  So it should help Homebush Sawyer hold the inside and apart from likely to being on the pace, he has the strong closing sectional in this field.  So the $4 looks a bit of value.

That hurts – missed the start and still almost got up.  Again, no excuses when you miss the start but a case of what if.  The winner was the one dog rated higher than Homebush Sawyer but had never won at Forbury Park.

Race 11

Over the years, there’s been a few dogs with blazing box speed that have been fun to follow.  They don’t always win but the value of the box speed is that they can put themselves in a position that any trouble behind means they can benefit fully.  Magic Jess Lass is one such dog – she downgrades, has drawn box one and maps to be a clear leader.  The main dangers are 4 Eyewell Turbo and 8 Reign of Fire but you get the feeling we should get a decent run out of Magic Jess Lass today.

Clearly there is a pattern emerging.  Express low levels of confidence and they win.  High levels of confidence seems to be the kiss of death!  Jumped OK but really needed to get a bigger gap on them.

Race 12

Know Denying (1) is boxed well and looks to be one of the bets of the day.  Placed 3 from 3 from box 1 and even though he doesn’t have blistering early speed he should be able to hold the rail.  If he can do that or at the very least not blow the start, he has the closing sectionals to put this field away.  Rates clearly on top too.

Not feeling the love at Forbury Park – the fav was just a fraction slow away but still looked like it was going to run down the leader.  But as we said at the top, get in front and you have to be run down.

Race 13

Another of these races where there is a mix of formlines that make it hard to line them up.  There’s a number of chances and for quaddies you might need to go wide – 3,8,5,1,4,6

As it turned out, the winner was pretty easily found – second rated.  The top four rated made up the F4.

Race 14

Take comments from previous race and repeat!  It does look an open race so focus on the box speed and hope for a clean start.  Again, it’s hard to line up the different formlines but Goldstar Willma (7) looks like one with the early pace and the enough left in the tank to close the race. Yi Feng (5) will be closing hard but concern about how far back it will get.

Race 15

Homebush Reihana (7) has early speed but elsewhere has failed to see out his races yet he has a strong record at Forbury.  You could argue this highlights the advantage the leading dogs have.  Regardless, he has to go in the mix. Goldstar Wynter (3) rates well but has yet to race at Forbury Park.  You can’t leave out Khatia (6) in another open race.  A possible bolter is Homebush Hundy (2) – an awful record from box 2 but has performed in the past at Forbury Park.