Just the 12 races today and with 2 C0 races, that leaves just 10 races to find some value. As I’ve mentioned previously, long painful experience has convinced me to leave C0 races alone or rather only bet into them by exception. There’s just too much unknown and as we know it’s easy enough for dogs to find trouble in a standard race, let alone one with inexperienced dogs.
Another point worth repeating is that it can be worthwhile following losing bets of the day. Last week’s bet of the day Bigtime Shine completely missed the start. But as we know with dog racing, there are plenty of opportunities and with a couple of regional circuits across the country, dogs tend to race against the same class of dogs start to start unless they are up or down in class. She looked a really good bet on Friday night and this time delivered.
I’ve been through the fields a couple of times – last night and after scratchings, and it’s really hard to label anything with confidence today. I’ll put my punting focus into the place 6 – while a lot of even races makes it hard to find a winner, it makes the place 6 more attractive if you can find a few value runners. So that’s where my focus will be today.
Bet of the Day – M3 Bigtime Fred (4)
This is one of the few races where i feel comfortable that there are one or two realistic winning chances. The bookies also agree that the two best chances are Bigtime Fred and Broke Brad.
Brad won well last week but in his previous two starts he was slow a way. Brad is a big lad and even though he was leading by the end of the back straight last week, he takes a few strides to get that big frame moving.
Conversely, Bigtime Fred looks to on pace and since he dropped back to C1 he’s run second three times in a row and has been on the pace on all three races. He has 5 of the top 6 opening sectionals over the last 90 days and so I think he’s a good chance to lead this.
That then puts the onus on dogs to run Fred down and clearly Brad is the biggest threat. That said, Fred has run similar closing sectionals to Brad’s last week. And as we see time and again, a closing sectional on its own doesn’t win races if you miss the start or run into early trouble.
On that basis, I’m happy to take the $3FF on Fred. I’ll save with some exotics working around Fred and Brad (eg quinella or Fred and Brad to run 1st and 2nd with the field for the other places). The only other dog worth considering is tough Tough Mr. Tee and he could go into exotics as well.
Ouch. The 8 dog read the script but unfortunately not the 4 dog. I was pretty confident around one of the 2 winning so a couple of multis have helped make it a profitable day but it was still a disappointing run from the 4 – never a winning chance.
Lay of the Day – M3 R3 Bigtime Kenny (2)
There’s a couple of runners that could win at value and a win wouldn’t surprise but I would be reluctant to label them with any confidence.
Conversely, I think Bigtime Kenny is no value in race 3. His best lifetime rating is 27 and his best rating in his last 6 races is 21. I agree it’s not a great field but you have to think if Kenny is paying $2.40FF then other dogs must be overs. It looks like a wide open race with two of the three top rated dogs (6, 10) paying double figures.
As a side note, it’s a pity the TAB don’t offer the opportunity to bet against a runner as you can do in other platforms. Racing has the head to head option while you would think having an option to back either the favourite vs the field would be attractive to punters in a race like this.
Got that one wrong – jumped run and omelette was on its way along with a side of humble pie! Not a great way to lose some weight.
No short priced favourites worth putting into multis.
You could potentially multi Bigtime Fred to place with some confidence but it’s whether you see any value in $1.32. I think given his sectionals his a very good chance of placing so you could look at that as an option.
If you didn’t read my post on place 6 a few weeks ago, and if you haven’t played place 6 before, it’s worth a quick read.
The place 6 looks like a great bet today – some even racing plus some races with less than 8 starters (races 10,12) so beware – races with only 2 places can easily trip up the best planned place 6. Also, you have to navigate through a C0 middle distance race – there’s nothing worse than going out in the first leg! I’ve actually gone short in the first leg simply because I want to have a lot of cover in the two races with only 7 runners.
576 combinations so $30 for just over 5%. I’ve been very cautious in races 10 and 12 with only 2 places so you could reduce the cost by taking fewer runners in either of those legs.
Well, I did mention the C0 factor but even so, half way through the race I was pretty damn confident … the only positive is that it underlines the risks with C0 races but still feel like the gods weren’t in our favour today. Just have to hope the gods smile on the bet of the day!
R7 5, 6
R8 4, 8
R9 3, 5, 7
R10 4, 5, 6, 7
R11 1, 2, 8
R12 3, 4, 5, 6