It’s a day when I’ve really struggled to find a dog that stands out in the stats and is at good value. There’s a lot of good open racing which reflects the challenge in labelling a winner or two; however, it can also help put some value into the place 6 so that will be my main focus from a betting point today.
Bet of the Day – M3 M9 Bigtime Shine (2)
This looks like a race in 2 with Bigtime Shine and Big League Diva the two best chances.
I’ve rated Shine on top for a couple of reasons:
- She’s downgrading from C5 so this will be a lot easier
- She’s got the best box draw she’s had since August. She’s had a succession of outside draws and has just been running into problems.
She has the best opening sectional although to be fair Diva has early speed as well. Likewise, both rate strongly on their closing sectionals.
The dogs in boxes 1 and 3 aren’t the quickest beginners which gives Shine the chance to get on to the rail and give them something to chase.
Well, good news and bad news. It was a race in two. Unfortunately, the one I selected did its chips at the start and near enough fell and was out of contention. Big League Diva then had the race at her mercy and it was over a long way from home. Still live in place 6 but no help for the bet of the day.
Value Bet – M9 R2 Thomas William (8)
Thomas William is a dog that has featured in my selections more than once. I think the bookies are ahead on this one but one of the things that stands out with Thomas William is how consistent he is, even if he’s not winning. From his last 6 starts, his best rating is 60 (top in this field) and only once has he rated less than 40. On that basis alone, he’s run 5 out of 6 races better than the best of half this field.
The concern is that he’s not blistering off the lids and box 8. However, the sectionals suggest that he has the ability to be on the pace at the least against this lot and he can also finish it off.
Big Time Kobe (2) is the other dog that rates well and the bookies have him as the clear favourite. Mother’s Touch has done us proud in recent weeks but it’s her first time over 457m and first time drawn the ace.
Happy to play the each way with Thomas William – currently $8FF and $2.20FP.
A couple of potential multi makers
- M3 R2 Boys Get Paid $1.25FF Can’t not have him in the mix
- M9 R4 Bigtime Cooper 1.85FF He’s run some fantastic races he and is in a mixed grade race after competing in the Waterloo Cup final. You would think he just needs to jump well – his normal strength – and then it’s a case of what he wins by.
If you didn’t read my post on place 6 two weeks ago, and if you haven’t played place 6 before, it’s worth a quick read.
One important thing to note with the place 6 is that you have to get a runner in the dividend paying position – in other words, if there is No Third Dividend, to stay live in the place six you need to get a 1st or 2nd. This is critical to your strategy – with 8 runners, you have 3 chances (37.5%) of getting a place. However, with 7 runners you only have 2 chances and around a 28.5% chance. So while it seems to be counter-intuitive, if there are 7 runners and NTD, I will often add an extra runner for insurance.
And if the TAB is reading this, shame on you that this far down the track you still don’t label if there is only two dividends rather than a late scratching and hence still two place dividends.
I’m also not a great fan of C0 races and if I can I avoid them from a punting perspective. However, as it’s the first leg of place 6 I’ve gone wide to try and ensure no nasty surprises – nothing is worse than having done the form and then missing out in the first leg!
$43.20 for 10% or you can play 5% for $22.
R5 2, 3, 5, 7 – the tote is a terrible indicator of chance in C0 – the three favourites missed so hopefully that will add some value to the place 6
R6 3, 4, 7 was hoping the 4 would push up to grab second but still live
R7 3, 4
R8 1, 2, 6
R9 2, 4
R10 3, 4, 5