While I wouldn’t want to get into a debate about sequels, perhaps the greatest sequel ever was Godfather II.  Some of you whippersnappers may not have even seen it.  It was the first sequel to win an Academy Award (you can thank me when that question comes up at quiz night).

Anyway, we almost won our Academy Award last week – it’s hard to think of a better result.  Apart from Al Pacino having a share in the syndicate.

Can we go two for two?  Can the pup do even better?  Did I mention there was a sequel to the sequel … imaginatively titled Godfather III?

First things first, this is definitely a step up from the race last week.  It was a very average C0 last week – although that said, the dog that ran second to BGP last week (Big Time Ivy) came out and won on Wednesday.

The main thing that the runners have a lot more experience and ringcraft. Cawbourne Moss (6) for example has won 3 races over the 410m at Palmerston North and has won 13 races in total.  (He refused to add to that number last week when I labelled him.)

As we’ve said pretty much every post, it doesn’t matter how fast a dog is if you miss the start and run into problems.

Keeping that in mind, the stats should give us a pretty decent level of confidence that if things go our way, we are right in this.

Not surprisingly, BGP’s time is massively superior to the best time of the rest.  His rating last week was 69 (out of 100) while none of the other runners have broken 40.

His closing sectional was outstanding so what we need is clear air.  The sectionals tell us that as long as he can run start like last week, he’s 1-2 lengths faster than the rest.

The biggest dangers are the inside runner Big Time Dusty.  Back last month, Dusty was running in C3 races so this is a significant step back in class.  A month or go, he was running 6.90s for the opening split which would have him at least competitive (BGP ran 6.81 seconds).  He’s also got the best closing sectionals (apart from our pup of course!) but we’re not in the same village let alone neighbourhood. BGP’s closing sectional is near enough 50 seconds (8 lengths) better than the next best.

Dusty also won in a C1/2 race at Hatrick midweek and in doing so recorded his best ever rating.

Cawbourne Moss (6) is the other runner who we need to consider.  He’s a little quicker off the lids than Dusty but a little slower over the closing stages.

So in terms of times or speed, BGP rates clearly on top.

There is at least one major and one minor flag.  First, BGP is still learning.  He bossed them like a pro last week but clearly there’s a major experience difference – BGP is having his second raceday outing while at the other experience Cawbourne Moss is having his 76th start.

The biggest concern is the start.  Off the lids, Dusty heads right like Donald Trump trying to get re-elected.  That is a concern if Dusty cuts the pup off.  Dusty has been missing the start recently but Summer Glee in box 3 also has a bit of toe so it’s not the ideal situation.

Enough of such negativity.  If he starts like he did last week he can take luck out of it and if he has clear air his closing sectional will do the rest.  All the stats say he wins but there is always an element of luck in dog racing, especially at the start.

We’ll know a lot more just after 2.01 tomorrow and I’ll post a full review Monday evening or Tuesday.

Go the boys, the girls, and the pup!

 

David