A great day of racing ahead of us – there looks to be some very even racing over all distances and we also get to see Boys Get Paid eponymous puppy run around in the first race at 1.32pm.
There’s money back madness on offer again for M3 races 1 and 2. After last week where we had really decent collect on the Place 6, I’ll have a look at that as well. I’ll post my recommended place 6 around 1pm. Updated at 12.35 – see end of post.
Race 1 – Money Back Madness – Boys Get Paid (3)
No value in the $1.25 but based on the exposed form (and BGP’s trial) if he jumps he wins. Based on what we have seen of the others it’s hard to label a second best bet although the Big Time dogs always have to be respected. I don’t think Ivy (2) will enjoy the inside box while conversely May (6) will appreciate the wider draw.
Boys Get Paid looks the obvious selection with Big Time May the quinella selection.
Wow. Just Wow. And the quinella (exacta to be fair) was never in doubt.
Race 2 – Money Back Madness – Cawbourne Moss (6)
Not a great field but to be fair it’s a C1 race. Cawbourne Moss is downgrading and is the only dog in this race to have won over T&D more than once. Sectionals tell us that at his best he should be leading at the end of the back straight and have a length on Big Time Gina who is the bookies’ elect but only just. If he can get clear air on pace, then he should be too strong over the closing sectional.
Disappointing run although didn’t quick get into the right posy and was checked a little. Money back madness was never in doubt but never looked like winning either.
Bet of the Day
Cawbourne Moss is definitely a good bet, especially with the money back offer. Remember, the bet has to be Fixed Odds only but at $2.80 with money back for 2nd, 3rd and 4th I think that’s worth having a crack.
Best Each Way bet is Thomas William (M9 R2). He won’t mind the inside draw, has recently downgraded and is in a race where the speed map works in his favour. He’s not the quickest away and tends to work into his races but there’s not a lot of speed in this race and the sectionals tell us he’s a good chance of being on pace which is where you need to be. He has a vacant box outside and the two runners in the next two boxes are slow away. If he can jump on terms, he can win this. Nice money at $4.80FF in a 7 dog race.
Just didn’t start well enough and got checked when making ground.
A couple of potential multi makers
- M3 R1 Boys Get Paid $1.25FF although the normal caveats about first starters in a CO so I wouldn’t go mad Yes
- M9 R1 Emgrand Rose (4) $1.80FF – yet again, if she jumps well she should simply win Yes
If you didn’t read my post on place 6 last week, and if you haven’t played place 6 before, it’s worth a quick read.
On a day like today, we’re really looking for a favourite or two to get beat. I think that’s possible in the first race with Spring Fox the form dog and I would expect the money to come. However, he’s up in class and his times suggest he’s absolute certainty. Box 8 can always be a risk so I’ve looked for some value in the first leg.
Conversely I’ve also gone a little skinny in the second leg to get the % value up. Queen Big League does look one of the obvious leaders and with a clear run should hold on for a place.
$28.80 for 10% or you could take 5% for just $15