Update at 3.15 – Updated with analysis of today’s place 6/pick 6 legs
The main focus of the preview today is the first two races – the TAB is offering the Money Back Madness on these races. If you haven’t had a crack before, you get money back on Fixed Odds bets up to $30 if your runner finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Obviously, with the dogs that gives you a 50% chance of getting your money back!
I’ve noticed recently that the place 6 has often had a bigger pot than the quaddie at the dogs so with the Pick 6 I’ll post some thoughts on the last 6 races by mid afternoon.
Race 1 – Money Back Madness – Bigtime Nash (1)
I really not a fan of punting on C0 races. There’s usually a paucity of form to analyse and compare and the inexperienced dogs can do strange things. To underline the caution, just three runners have attempted the 410m at Palmerston North.
Almost by elimination, I think Bigtime Nash is the best credentialled but as short as he is, he is no value. He was run down recently over 457m so the shorter distance should suit. He could well end up with the early lead and that in itself could be significant. He has by some degree the best individual rating in the field so he does tick a few boxes.
Speaking of boxes (boom!) the one concern is the inside draw. He tends to wander a little away from the rail but if he can jump and lead that will be less of a concern while the dog on his immediate outside has a similar pattern of racing.
So the sensible option is Bigtime Nash but as a I mentioned there’s no value in the $1.85 but a least in theory a low risk bet with the money back offer. At the other extreme, if you don’t want to take the shorts on Nash, then the big value could be Ariana Sunset who has the best time of those who’ve run the 410 and also has box speed.
It doesn’t always go to script but then again with the data we have available (sectionals and ratings) it is surprising how often it does. In the end either option was a safe bet but Bigtime Nash did exactly what we expected and while a small collect, it was never in doubt.
Amazed at how much the exotics paid – the tri was $120 and the first four almost $900. Great returns if you went field for third in the tri or 3rd and fourth in the F4.
Race 2 – Money Back Madness
Again, another race where there isn’t a lot of form over the distance to allow for detailed comparison. Half of the field have had two or less runs over the 410m.
1 Elsa Blueblood – early pace but you would think there are a few who could run her down. Still box speed could be the difference in an open race.
2 Spring Rage – bookies’ elect but not the fastest away. Only one start over 410 at PN and that doesn’t inspire any great confidence.
3 Nuclear Jewel – 5 previous attempts over 410 for blot so no confidence.
4 Retail Mayhem – 22 previous starts over 410 for no wins and 9 places. Not the worst but given her record you’d want more than $5FF
5 I’ll Be Loyal – you’d need to be to back after 17 starts over 410 for just three placings
7 Barbarossa Boy – last start win at Hatrick plus 2 wins and 3 places from 10 attempts. Was run down from same box 2 starts back by Harpoon Harry and Mother’s Touch which is pretty good form lines in this race. Draw not a help by maps to get away OK.
8 Arthur’s Crown – another whose been racing at Hatrick and has a much better record there. Last start winner but not a particularly compelling case either.
10 Taramakau – Won a couple of times over 390m at Ascot (similar type of track and distance). Completely out of form at present but only second crack at PN. Paying $21FF but I would rate him at half that.
Again, a hard race to punt with any conviction. The two best options would appear to be Barbarossa Boy and for value Elsa Blueblood. Both look to have the early speed to be on the pace and at least hang on for fourth or better. With Spring Rage shortening, Barbarossa Boy looks reasonable value at $3.80 with the money back option.
Tough race as we feared and luck was the key. The one thing we got right was that the favourite got back and was never in but unfortunately BB didn’t get a clear lead and was never in it. Hopefully the first race made up for the second.
Bet of the Day
No standout today. I like Awesome Quality in race 10 but concerns about this inside draw. Will focus my own betting on a place 6 and keep powder dry.
There doesn’t appear to be any runners you could back with a high degree of confidence. As I’ve noted above, i don’t have any confidence with C0 races so I’d be reluctant to go too hard on Bigtime Nash as a multi-maker.
The Predictor has box 1 ($3.25) clearly on top while the bookies have made box 2 a very short favourite ($1.75). A small number of units on box 1 upfront could make for an interesting day especially as there’s a good chance box 1 will get off to a flying start.