Selections for Monday 16 September 2019

With the TAB running their Money Back Madness offer on races 1 and 2, I’m going to focus on those today.  Remember it’s fixed odds only and you get your money back if the runners comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Our bet of the day last week, Bigtime Shadow bombed the started and was never in it.  She then ran on Friday night from box 1 and won and paid $6!  It highlights that it’s worth sticking with good dogs, especially if they have an off day as they are likely to pay overs next time up.

Value Bet of the Day – M9 Race 1 Zipping Romeo (6)

A little retrospective reassessment but after having a good start to the day, we can either go for the shorts of Bigtime Cooper or look for a little value.

Using Neil’s scale, I think the confidence is around the 1/5 but I think that Zipping Romeo is paying overs.  A lot of money will be attracted to the Aussie import having its first start but it can always be a little risky backing an import first time.  It does create value for other runners and Zipping Romeo looks one of those to benefit.

He has the top rating and along with Arm Turner is the only runner to have rated over 28 in the past 6 starts.  In fact three out of his last 5 starts at Palmerston North over 457m he’s rated better than 30 – which should be good enough to run a place.  He has a record of 11 starts, 1 win and 6 places over the 457m.

Romeo is paying $10/$2.40.  At that price, with the favourite paying $2.50FF, you could almost justify back Romeo on the place alone.

As I said, there isn’t a great deal of confidence but he’s work a gold coin each way.

I suppose if a 1.35 favourite can be beaten, then Romeo was no good thing.  To be fair, it ran into more trouble than a Kiwi frontrower going into the NRL finals and then managed to get squeezed and fall when starting to make some progress.  Back again next week.

Race 1 – Money Back Madness

This is normally the type of race that you would be better off watching as the two favourites aren’t paying much.  I prefer Bigtime Daisy in this as she is back in class and the sectionals tell us she should lead.  We don’t have any sectionals for Spring Fox but it would surprise me if he beat Daisy.

Daisy is currently paying $2.20 but with her being by far the strongest at the start – and having the two best closing sectionals as well – I’d be pretty confident she should at least run fourth and no damage will be done.

Daisy was a little disappointing from a win perspective – you would have thought she would go on to win with the start she got.  However, with the Money Back Madness it was a very low risk bet and we get to go again next race.  Not a bad start for the Rugs Challenge either.

Race 2 – Money Back Madness

This is a much more open race – the bookies have priced the entire field between $3.50 and $12.  I’m not convinced that Bigtime Kenny is the best dog in the race but the bookies have him as favourite and the money has come. I suspect a decent chunk of this is because he’s out of the top Coles’ kennel but his times are imposing and based on his past runs he’s not the quickest away.

That said, there doesn’t appear to be a lot of early speed in this race.  There’s a couple that I like at decent money.

The likely pacemaker is Plan Stan – he should jump and lead from box 5 but he hasn’t won since late last year.  However, if he gets an uncontested lead and there’s trouble behind him, he could spring a minor surprise.

However, the dog that appeals the most in this race is Mother’s Touch (6).  She’s had a tendency to get back in her races and finish strongly but with the lack of early speed she’s a better chance today to get on the pace – and the sectionals confirm that.  She should also get a drag into the race following Plan Stan on her inside.  If she can be around 3rd in clear air at the end of the back straight, she’s a good chance to go on with it at nice money.

It doesn’t always go exactly to script but once Mother’s Touch was in the prescribed position the $5.50 looked like great money.  Nice start to the day.

Multi Makers

A couple of proven runners should provide our multi-makers yet again:

Bigtime Pete – second start back after a short break and the course record holder.  He won first up and has a great record from the outside boxes.  Perhaps a little short at $1.75FF – Bigtime Shine should make it at least a contest but Pete should be winning this everything else being equally. $1.75  Never picked the jump and that was it.

Bigtime Cooper is turning into one of the very top dogs in no part due to his blistering early speed.  The draw helps and he’s proven he’s still good enough to win win he misses the jump. An obvious anchor in the pick 6. $1.35FF

Rugs Challenge

We’ve had a really good run with the rugs challenge getting 3 out of 4 over the last couple of weeks and one paid $7.50.  So it can both be profitable and a cheap way to have an interest in 5 or 10 races.

M3 – the Predictor has boxes 1,2 and 3 all on 11 points.  Box 3 looks to have the strongest second half of the card so if it can pick up points in the first four or five races, it could upset.  The bookies have both rugs 1 and 2 around $2.50 so there’s some decent value with box 3 currently at $8.50.  Small units but at that price you are definitely getting overs if it comes in.

M9 – as always, the 5 races make this a volatile challenge but box 2 looks the dominant rug here, without taking into account the first starter from Oz in race 1.  Only paying $1.70 so potentially a multi maker.