Updated 2.30pm suggested pick 6.
Assuming our multi comes in (famous last words yet again!) that gives us a couple of potential anchors. The second to last leg likewise looks like a two dog race with the two inside dogs likely to benefit from the dogs in 3 and 4 running wide. Conversely, I think there’s a chance for a bit of the value in the first leg so let’s take the lot.
$12 gives you 10% and we’re having to be confident we’ll be live going into the second leg!
R1 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 if first and second had reversed would have been a lot happier!
R2 – 2, 3, 7
R3 – 2, 4, 5, 6, 8
R4 – 2
R5 – 1, 2
R6 – 7
The better bets look to be in the second meeting which should also help with the pick 6 (last race M3 plus the 5 races on M9). I’ll post my thoughts on the pick 6 later in the day.
Bet of the Day M9 Race 3 Bigtime Shadow (2)
Shadow looks like a decent best top bet today. He rates on top in all categories except box speed where he’s almost on top. He has the top two opening sectionals and three of the top handful of closing sectionals. He’s 2 from 2 from box 2 (Richie Benaud would be some proud of that stat!) and has won 6 out of 13 from the inside three boxes so he’s drawn to win.
The only flag is that he’s up in class today and has yet to win at C4 but he does look like a dog who won’t be out of place in C5 so that shouldn’t be a worry.
The likely challengers should come from Arden Emgrand (8) Thrilling Massey (5) and Bigtime Benji (7). However, all three are likely to land midfield at best and as noted at the top, all have a best time slower than Shadow.
It looks like his race to lose – literally with a Shadow of a doubt! Currently $2.10 FF which based on his ratings is pretty good value and I’d be surprised if it didn’t come in before start time.
And yes, there was more than a Shadow of a doubt. Blew the start and without the multi and the pick 6. Never in it.
Multi Maker M9 Race 5 Bigtime Cooper (7)
I talked up Cooper’s opening sectional last week and he missed the jump by a couple of lengths. What was incredible was that by the end of the back straight, he had a handy lead.
He’s won over the course and distance 8 times from 10 starts and and has the top 6 opening sectionals in the last 90 days. Remarkably, he also has the best closing sectional. So once again, so long as he doesn’t bomb the start, he should be able to get a handy lead and then it will be curtains.
The one concern is his record from box 7 isn’t flawless (4 starts, 2 wins, 1 place) but it should be a case of if he jumps, he wins. Thrilling Vice (2) has won his last three and has enough box speed to be on the pace. Bigtime Levi (6) is arguably the best closer in the race but does have a competitive opening sectional.
However, as they (whoever they are) say, box speed is gold on greyhound racing and if Cooper jumps, he should be winning this.
You want get rich on the $1.55FF but a $10 multi with Bigtime Shadow will return $32.55.
The thing about multis is you have to get both legs. Cooper did exactly what we expected, Shadow sadly didn’t read the post before the race.
I’ll post a suggested pick 6 later today once any late scratchings are confirmed.
We got some great overs on the rugs challenge last week. Keep in mind the odds fluctuate throughout the meeting so
M3 – the Predictor has box 8 clearly on top and the bookies also have it favourite at $3.10. There could be some value in box 3 which is currently paying $7.50 – it looks to have a strong second half of the card. If it fails to pick up points in race 1, it could get out to juicy odds. Box 3 into $4.50 after race 1. Box 8 wins with box 3 just 1 point behind – and just missing third place in the last!
M9 – Predictor and bookies also agree that box 2 is on top but not a lot of value at present – $2.25. Based on the ratings, you would think that box 2 is running for third at best in the first race (M9) so it may well pay more after the first race. A big fat no! Four rugs challenges in row would have been nice!