Selections for Monday 26 August 2019

Another day where you’ll be happy to come through with the bank in tact and a few winners.  The ratings are always good at finding a few chances at good prices but for the purpose of this preview, we want to find runners that have a high degree of winning.

Bet of the Day – Race 10 Bigtime Shadow (2)

Looks a strong bet on paper.  Downgrading – best draw in last 6 starts. Top rated in pretty much all categories except box speed.

There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in the red rug so that should allow Bigtime Shadow to work across to the rain.  If he can get away ok then he has the closing sectionals to do what the ratings suggest and that is win by a distance.

It’s otherwise a pretty even field with Bigtime Tank one who could show up early and Thomas William more of a stamina type dog.  To be fair, Thomas William has had a few chances recently and just hasn’t run through the line as you would like.

Tap Out Reg will no doubt attract a bit of money – he’s won twice since coming across to NZ but his times suggest he will struggle to better Bigtime Shadow, everything else being equal.

$2.20FF rated priced around $2.10

A great example of how the ratings can sometimes suggest a dog is value at $2.20!  Once he got away well, it was a question of what he would win by. 

Value Bet of the Day – Race 11 Kamada Park (1)

Kamada Park had a break of 68 days and has come back a different dog.  His last two runs have been two of his career best.

And critically, for a dog that was famed for being a slow beginner, he seems to have found the ability to jump and run leading his last to races and winning.

The ratings show he simply needs to get away on even terms and with the form he is in, if he picks the jump he should be winning and box should help.  There isn’t a lot of early pace in this race which should help also.

The negatives are that he is up in class and as I mentioned he’s no certainty to jump and lead.

The two best challengers look to be Big League Diva – an on pace runner – and Waitohi who is down in class and has swooping claims from the outside box.

$2.50 is fair value, especially as Bigtime Roco looks a little short.

Ouch. The multi falls over by the smallest margin.  Almost but he made it tough by missing away.

Pick 6 

You could possibly anchor the two dogs above and go wide in other but it does look a very open Pick 6.  It opens with an even C4/5 sprint followed by a Co race so hard to line them up.

I’m happy to watch this week and wait for a Pick 6 I feel more confident about getting.

Rugs Challenge

The bookies have no idea today either!  The favoured rug is paying $3.70 so some value if you can find the winning run.

The Predictor agrees with the bookies that box 7 is on top with the likely next best being the yellow rug (5) currently offering $6.25. Not a lot of scratchings today and both rugs have 12 runners at this stage.