Selections for Monday 19 August 2019

It looks like a pretty tough day at the office today.  That said, last week there were three dogs paying less than $2 who all looked top chances and all three missed.

We did get out bet of the day home without any dramas so that will be the goal today as well.

Bet of the Day – Race 6 Bigtime Shine (3)

Neil mentioned this morning about the running preferences of dogs and how that can be helpful.  This race looks to be one of those.

Bigtime Shine looks a good chance here based on her stats but on paper you might be a little nervous at the state.  However the dog on her inside heads left while the dog in box one comes away from the rail.  Both of these look the main speed dangers so there’s a chance the two inside dogs could tangle and with Chalk and Cheese heading left, it should create a clear passage for Shine.

Shine does have the fastest sectional of all of these while she has four of the top 10 best closing sectionals.

Her last start win shows she’s feeling good and with a clear getaway, she should be too good for them.  Rp $2.10 currently $2.20

Note today.  Missed the jump badly and mad up a lot of ground but never a winning chance.  One of those days really.

Multi Makers

Unlike last week, there aren’t many short priced dogs worth putting into multis.

Pick 6 

The pick 6s at PN have been pretty tough recently or rather there’s been one or two races that have put a spanner in the works.  It’s hard to see any runners you could label as absolute anchors either.

Leg 1 – race 7

A race with no runner with no prior form over the distance.  The tote will be your best guide but with so much unknown, hard to be confident with this leg.  Tote and best ratings say 4,8,1.

Leg 2 – race 8

At least an Asterix on this race.  Tap Out Reg is a recent import so still finding his feet but has won his last two.  Simply Smooth is another recent import having just her third NZ start.  So it makes it a little difficult to line up the form.  You can’t rule out either and to be fair they rate strongly too.  The value runner has to be Zipping Romeo who rates well, has the sectionals to back it up and has an improved draw.

Leg 3 – race 9

Looks like a race in 2 or 3.  Kamada Park was outstanding last week and with a similar performance he wins.  However, he can be a slow trapper.  Thomas William has been costly recently – he looks good on paper but hasn’t been getting the job done.  Hard to leave out of this tho.  Zipping Cobra looks like one of the likely pacemakers and needs to be included.

Leg 4 – race 10

I think you need to have at least 1,2,3 in this.  I don’t think Bigtime Seth (3) is any value and I’d almost make it lay of the day.  That said, I’d still throw him into the mix for the Pick 6

Leg 5 – race 11

An fascinating race.  On the one hand, the obvious play is to anchor Bigtime Rod.  He’s a C5 dog so no surprises he won when back in C4 so today is a bonus.  However, he did take a while to get going on Friday night   Some interesting stats – box 4 is the only box he hasn’t won from and boxes 3 and 5 are his second equal worst stats.  The ratings say he can win but perhaps isn’t a $1.90.

The challenge is to find the dog to beat Rod – if you don’t hope and anchor him then you might need to go a little wider with 1, 7, 3 and 2 all having some merit.

Leg 6 – race 12

I have a love hate relationship with the last race at Palmerston North.  I love to hate it! Bigtime Brody looks like the obvious leader and has the ratings to win but a number of these have stronger closing sectionals.  Turanza’s Terror is one of those as is Ask King Jeff.  Bigtime Levi has to be in the mix and is one dog who has the ability to deliver both ends. All about space is another with early speed and he won’t mind the outside draw.  A $3.20 favourite in a seven dog race tells you it is an open race.

5 out of 6 with the miss in race 8 – our value runner got checked and was making ground at the end but a roughie won.  It wasn’t a forlorn chance  either but you would have needed to have gone wide.

Rugs Challenge

The bookies have 3 and 4 as the favoured rugs while the Predictor has box 4 clearly on top.  So perhaps a little bit of value around the $3.20.  The Predictor has box 1 as second and paying $11.00 could be worth a gold coin for a bit of interest.  There’s a few scratchings today – only boxes 3 and 6 have 12 runners while boxes 1, 4 and 7 have only 10.