Selections for Monday 12 August 2019

The Pick 6s at Palmerston North on Mondays certainly add to the interest at the start of the week.  It does look gettable … but then the ABs were favourites on Saturday night!

As always, the ratings are really useful to help find value runners if you want to play against the favourites.  That said, there’s a couple of runners I do like that are worth looking at.

Bet of the Day – Race 10  Bigtime Lizzy (2)

There’s a couple of dogs that look like winners in the multi makers but they are all paying less than $2.  Conversely, I would rate Bigtime Lizzy around $2.30 so the $2.90 opening price is a bit of value.

Along with Bigtime Cutie (7) she looks the obvious speed influence.  Box 2 definitely helps her case and if she can at least get away on even terms her closing times tell us she should be winning.

No dramas.  Ended up starting at $2FF so the money came in bucketloads. Like the rain.  Jumped run and won … clearly a dog that can read!

Multi Makers

Race 6 – Thrilling Massey.  Was terrible here 2 starts back but bookends that with a win last start and an outstanding rating three back when second to Bigtime Shadow.  The lack of early pace in the race is a big help.  Currently $1.90FF after opening at $2.50 so the money has come.  Had his chance but seemed to peak on his run.

Race 7 – Bigtime Pete looks to have the measure of the C5 sprint today.  It’s not the toughest field and he just needs a decent start and then his closing sectional will do the rest.  Currently $1.70FF. Missed away and then forced wider around the turn.  Will keep but clearly not a rainy day!

Race 12 – Bigtime Marlisa (8) is close to the bet of the day but opening at $1.70FF she doesn’t offer a lot of value, especially as I would expect her price to come in if anything.  She won well last week at Hatrick from the same box when Neil labelled her a quality bet but we aren’t going to get that same money today! Another to miss the start but if you covered on the second pick Thirlling Stan you would have been pleased with that.

A tough day for the short priced favourites with only our bet of the day living up to their billing.

Pick 6 

Leg 1 – race 7

It really helps to have an anchor although the counter logic is that if it’s that easy, then every one else will have it too!  Bigtime Pete does look like the anchor although he hasn’t yet won from box 7.  He’s the distance record holder and rates on top on all criteria bar box speed.  He should get some clear air from box 7 with Emjay notoriously slow so we’ll anchor Pete in leg 1.

Leg 2 – race 8

While there’s a few races in the Pick 6 that look straightforward, this isn’t one of them.  Go as wide as you can afford.  Ratings suggest you need to have at least 8, 5, 4, 6, and 7 and I’m always nervous leaving out the red rug!  It’s close to a field job but with a couple of legs where you can go narrow, it could be worth it.

Leg 3 – race 9

Ratings say you need 8, 5, 1 and 6 while it’s always hard to leave out a first starter ex Aussie runner (4).  If you have a tight budget then you need to include 5 and 1 but I’m surprised Bigtime Stella (8) is going around paying double figures so worth throwing in for some possible value.

Leg 4 – race 10

The ratings and sectionals say that this is a three dog race with Bigtime Lizzy (2), Bigtime Cutie (7) and Cawbourne Moss (8) being the three obvious candidates.  You could make a case for anchoring Lizzy – she’s boxed well, won well last start and has a bonus C2 outing today.

Leg 5 – race 11

A Manawatu special – it’s one of those races that if you go narrow, you’ll still be worried about a few.  And naturally, Sod’s law is that if you take Freddy Field the favourite will win.  If you’re like into this race, I’d love to have the field simply because the last race does look like you can narrow it down somewhat.  A couple of the roughies can’t be ignored, especially Goldstar Sawyer.  In a worst case scenario, you can always back runners in the last that you don’t have on your quaddie ticket … so long as you’re live.

Leg 6 – race 12

If you’re brave or have a limited budget, you could look at anchoring Bigtime Marlisa (8).  To underline this point, it’s hard to find anything you could confidently say would beat her.  However, it is greyhound racing so there’s always an element of luck or good fortune so if you budget allows consider in order Thrilling Stan (2) Bigtime Rusty (4) and Arm Turner (5)

Out in leg one but after then the ratings were a pretty good guide.  It looks like there was only a partial payout too.

Rugs Challenge

The bookies have struggled to find a clear favourite today with only the stripes (2) paying less than $4.  So if you like a rug, get on! The ratings say that box 5 yellow ($4.50) and the pink rug 8 ($6.50) are worth a nibble especially as there’s a few scratchings.  Boxes 1-3 each have just 10 runners today while box 5 has no scratchings and 8 has just 1 scratching.