Selections for Monday 5 August 2019

First free ratings of the new season and after a few short priced favourites did the job yesterday, it looks a pretty competitive card.
Don’t forget there is a guaranteed $15K Pick 6 starting on race 7.  It’s not terminating so will jackpot if not struck.

Bet of the Day – Race 2 Thomas William (1)

Thomas William is a good dog  who has been as high as C5.  His racing style has made it tough for him as he’s a slow beginner but this race maps to have no pace at all.  On that basis, he should be able to at least get away on even terms and he has the closing sectional to leave them in his wake.

The only concern is the unknown – Dyna Bryleigh (4) is an Aussie import having her first start.  Be worth watching the tote to see if the money comes.

Thomas William has the best last start rating, the second best rating for the last 6 starts and the best time for track and distance.  Allowing for the unknown, I’d rate him as a $2.20 chance so there is some value around the $2.40 (opened at $2.50).

Not exactly the result we wanted – just couldn’t get the run, a bit of jostling at the turn and found one a little better on the day.

Multi Makers

The best multi maker looks like Bigtime Cooper (3) in race 6.  He’s in a rich vein of form.  If you don’t like the $1.60 to win, then the $1.65FF to place on Turanza’s Terror could be the way to go – he looks like the only other challenger.

Pick 6 

Leg 1 – race 7

An open race.  You might need a few to be safely through the first leg.

Leg 2 – race 8

The bookies have it right with the main chances being 6,8,7 and 3. The fascinating runner is Bigtime Molly (4) who has won her last three straight … at Hatrick.  She does look to be the obvious pacemaker which means she really needs to go in the mix.

Leg 3 – race 9

With no great confidence, 7, 2 3, and 1. I’m not convinced by Bigtime Sheer at PN but she does box up well and does have early pace so I couldn’t leave her out, especially after a return to winning form last start.

Leg 4 – race 10

Bigtime Daisy (8) looks the top chance.  I wouldn’t be keen on anchoring her normally but with open fields elsewhere we really need an anchor.  The obvious danger is Here’s Hemi (5) but he does get back and finish strongly.  Cawbourne Moss (6) and Bigtime Cutie (4) are the others worth consideration.

Leg 5 – race 11

Another race where it’s hard to go with any greater confidence but I would work around 8,6,2 and 7.

Leg 6 – race 12

Depending on how you budget is going, you may need to go a little narrow in the last and possibly cover a few longer priced runners.  You need to have the two favourites (4 and 5) while Lucha is one with the potential to be on the early speed.  Conversely Arm Turner has awful course stats but he does show up on the closing sectionals.

Sadly, not a Pick 6 I could punt with any confidence, unless you’re prepared to anchor or at least go short in a couple of legs.  That said, it does look like it could pay a decent dividend if you can strike it.