It’s all about the Pick 6 in July with TWO terminating pick 6’s including one at Manawatu. So I’ll focus on the Pick 6 races unless I am particularly keen about a runner in another race.
Looking forward to the Pick 6’s – it’s a great way to generate some interest and also to get a decent return. Good luck if you’re having a crack.
Bet of the Day – M3 R10 Bigtime Lizzy (7)
The only concern I have is the draw – she tops the ratings, comes up the most on the best opening sectionals and dominates the closing sectionals. The concern is box 7 – although she has her best record from box 8. So the outside is not the problem per se, only other runners. Where’s Jonathan Parkes when you need a charmed run???
Retail Mayhem (6) is a slow out while Rumours (8) is a swooper as well so unless she bombs the start, she should be right in this.
The map has her in the first two or three ideally with no pressure around her. With her closing sectionals, she should be two strong for them and she is in great form having won her last two races at Hatrick and stays in the same class.
If you want to go wider in the Pick 6, it gets a little challenging. Thrilling Trev (1) and Big Time Dynasty (3) map to be on the lead which is always an advantage but neither look particularly strong at the finish so will rely on problems behind them. I think the next best runner is Rumours (8) although it may be a little short for her. The outside box should suit and she is a strong finisher.
Regardless, happy to take the $2.60FF and if I had to find a P6 anchor, she would be a definite candidate.
Just missed the jump and after that it was too much to make up. Third was a reasonable recovery but not good enough for pick 6. Well done if you managed to find the winner too – hadn’t won in almost 20 attempts at the distance!
- R6 Bigtime Pete – he turns up and wins. At some stage he won’t win but he looks the likely winner again today. He turned up. He won.
Pick 6 Overview – Races 7-12
Race 7 – looks like a race in two or three based on proven distance form – Don’t Knocka Gee (2), Billy’s Bake (3), and possibly Waitohi (6) to get through leg one. Favourite won well. All should be alive.
Race 8 – a much more open race with more than a few chances. Don’t ignore Little Scamp (1). Box draw helps and maps to be on the speed. Don’t worry if you can’t narrow it down – the bookies have the favourite at $3.80. If you can find the winner of this race, it could add some value. Looked like a Freddy Field job – if you did, then you’ll be happy.
Race 9 – A possible banana skin race. Bigtime Chris is a dog I love to back as he always competes and can often be backed a good odds. However, his record from box one doesn’t inspire confidence. Magic Flynn has to be in the mix but has been hit and miss to be polite. To add to the confusion, the favourites either don’t map well or like Chris aren’t boxed well. A tough leg for punters as you want the three favourites but you also would want some cover for the reasons I’ve explained. Covered easily with the three favourites although the money came in torrents for Chris.
Race 10 – Bigtime Lizzy (7) is my bet of the day so clearly the top pick. Backup/cover is a little less clear but the one dog I think could run her down in the straight is Rumours (8). That’s a no this time!
Race 11 – Just what you want … a C1 to get your through to the last leg. Dogs on the way up mixing with dogs on the way down mixing with dogs that are going around and around. Bookies have Frosty at $2.50 and Marlisa at $2.80 – I have both in the mix but the rating suggest you might need to go wider. The challenge is that you either trust a dog with little experience but potential upside or else hope that one of the other dogs can live up to their past performance levels. Jax Jewel, Kirkham Webby and Bigtime Sam (1) all have claims depending on how you view it. Favourite won it but Jax Jewel looked likely at one stage which would have added further spice to the Pick 6.
Race 12 – great race to finish the pick 6. The bookies can’t help either – they have 6 of the runners paying $8.50 or less. I think you need to go wide and I’d definitely include Trojan Hoarse. He’s won two group 1 races already and both times he’s jumped, run and won. He loves box 3 too. Trojan Hoarse jumped exactly as predicted but one Thrilling Talk landed in second it was all over a long way out. We got the concession pick 6 but it doesn’t pay much these days ;-)
Value Bet of the Day
The value bet of the day is obvious the Pick 6. Can’t get better than 20K terminating.