Updated at 3.05 with recommended late quaddie.
We got 2 from 2 last week … that was until FIFA’s VAR made an unwanted appearance and took the win away from our bet of the day. I still have the scars today!
The last 4 races are the heats of the North Island Challenge stakes and they also make the four legs of the late quaddie. The TAB has put a bonus $4K into the late quaddie so we’ll also make that the value bet of the day. I’ll post a recommended quaddie bet later.
Bet of the Day – M3 R10 Robson (2)
The Golden Chase winner looks well boxed to win this.
He’s drawn box 2 and there’s no pace on his inside. He has the best time for course and distance and he’s also got the best rating over the last 6 races.
With Fare Dodger drawn in 4, it could make it challenging for the dogs drawn outside so that also plays into Robson’s paws.
Only query is the 39 day break but he doesn’t seem to be carrying any extra pudding.
It’s not a strong field at all and you would think he only needs to jump well to win. RP $1.80 currently $2.20 FF
Won well – took a little while to work to the lead but Fare Dodger ran the perfect screen. He ended up paying $1.70 on the tote so the $2.20 was definitely overs. At least the VAR didn’t take this won away from us!
- R7 Bigtime Shadow – 1 win T&D in track record time says it all
- R11 Bigtime Cooper – slight query about box draw but has shown box speed to lead and win
Value Bet of the Day
The value bet of the day has to be the late quaddie – the TAB have added a bonus $4k. I’ll update after race 5 just in case there’s any carry forward as well,
Lay of the Day – M3 R4 Bigtime Seth (7)
Bigtime Seth is definitely a winning chance but I couldn’t take him at $1.70. In his four career races, he has yet to run from a box outside box 4 so that has to be a flag. In a couple of his races he’s been a little slow out so there’s strike two. And strike three is his times – he’s been winning races but the Predictor suggests this is a very open race. Seth’s best time for the track and distance is on par with most but inferior to Bigtime Forest while his best time over his last 6 starts isn’t dominant and matched by a couple. And strike four if it’s needed is that he’s up in class.
So with all of those flags, I would want a lot more than $1.70.
The main positives would seem that there’s not a lot of early pace in this race. If Seth can get away from the boxes safely, then his closing sectional is pretty strong.
The other positive is that it’s hard to label one or two to beat him – Bigtime Forest has won his last 3 while Tuff Knight rates well and has the inside alley.
With the queries, I just don’t see any value in the $1.70 and that price is likely to come in as well.
Another dog I’m happy to watch today is Billy’s Bake in race 3. He’s well back in distance – and to be fair, well back in class. it’s not the strongest field by any stretch but at $2.80 I’m happy to watch Billy run around today.
Well, I watched both of them go around and they both won. Both dogs lead throughout. Licking my moral wounds but will see how the bet of the day goes.
It looks like the middle legs are the easiest and you could arguably anchor Robson and Bigtime Cooper on another ticket. I’m looking for a little value in the last leg.