Update at 2.30 – bonus quaddie
There’s a fine line between hero and zero but if we’re looking for value then it’s hard to go past a couple of anchors given our best bet is in the third leg. With Bigtime Pete in the first leg, it does tend to make it more like a treble. If there’s a possibility of value, it looks like the second leg where I’ve got my lay of the day.
R9 8 1st
R10 1, 2, 3 1st, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
R12 2, 6, 7, 8
32 selections for $16 gives you 50%
Missed last leg after the bungle with the third leg.
Apologies for the delay – my best “lay of the day” was late scratched … although I suppose I can now say with some real confidence it won’t be winning today!
Bet of the Day – M3 R11 Bigtime Lizzie (3)
I’m happy to make Lizzie the standout bet today. She downgrades and today has the best draw in her last 5 starts. She has 4 of the top 7 opening sectionals along with the three top closing sectionals. She maps to be first or second at the end of the back straight and that says she can win.
The bookies have Bigtime Jasmine as a decent chance. She’s had 10 attempts over the distance but her best rating is just 33 compared to Lizzie’s best of 54.
The value runner is Cawbourne Foxy in box 1. Last week’s run was the first after a break and it wasn’t that bad a run. It’s not the strongest field and with some natural improvement second up, Foxy could spice up the exotics.
I rate Bigtime Lizzie at $2.40 so the $3FF is attractive.
I don’t know what to say to be fair. Run the race another 10 times and I suspect we would get a similar result 6 or 7 times. I respect what Mark Roso had to say but it still leaves a bad taste in the mouth. Not to mention the multis! Funnily enough, these types of things always seem to happy when you back the winner! Rant over.
R9 Bigtime Pete (8) looks like he wins again barring bad luck – never in doubt. After he crossed the line in front :-) Still a bad win is better than a great second. As I said, made the quaddie a treble and if you took the field in the second then you should be live going into the bet of the day.
Value Bet of the Day
The value bet of the day has to be the late quaddie – the TAB have added a bonus $4k. I’ll update after race 5 just to see if there’s any carry forward as well,
Lay of the Day – M3 R10 Magic Flynn (6)
At his very best, he wins this but in his 9 NZ starts he’s rated above 20 just once. He maps to be in the last two and that alone makes him hard to back with any confidence. He’s also up in class. So there’s more than one flag. He does have the best closing sectional of this lot but that is the one positive. It can win him the race of course but a slow start and bad luck make him a tough favourite to back.
I think Bigtime Otis and Bigtime Puma both have claims in this. They have good box draws and some early speed, especially with a slow starter in Cawbourne Assist in box 1. Barabarossa Boy is another who can be expected to be up on the early pace although his closing sectionals are weak.
Tuna Speed rates well but the draw doesn’t appeal. Another runner that has been making the way down the classes so a win can’t be far away.
I’m happy to put Magic Flynn into my quaddie but will be looking to go wider.
Pretty much to script. Magic Flynn drifted and the 2 and 3 opened more favoured. We didn’t need the field in the quaddie!
The rugs challenge hasn’t been very profitable recently so I’ve decided to give it a miss for a while. Still worth while playing if you have the time to analyse the races.
With the bonus quaddie today, I’ll post an update before the first leg of the second quaddie.